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Energy Tomorrow Blog

The Oil Futures Rebound

crude markets  crude oil  demand 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted May 21, 2020

After crude oil futures prices plunged into negative territory for a day last month, there was a good deal of speculation that the same thing could happen this month. Some even pointed to the April futures meltdown as a “doomsday” scenario for U.S. natural gas and oil.

Well, a number of things happened on the way to oil’s “doomsday.”

At the outset, let’s note that what happened with futures in April didn’t repeat this month. Oil futures prices for June delivery of West Texas Intermediate crude, whose contracts expired Tuesday, closed at $32.50 per barrel – about 300% higher than they did for those contracts a month ago. Let’s explore why.

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API MSR: Glimmer of Light for Oil Markets?

monthly-stats-report  economy and energy  demand  fuels 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted May 14, 2020

API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report (MSR) has positive news; it just takes a close look to find it.

One example: Weekly petroleum demand data (MSR and U.S. Energy Information Administration), as measured by total domestic petroleum deliveries, indicates that the worst impacts on our industry from COVID-19 and measures to contain it may be behind us, occurring in mid-April.

We won’t know for sure until we see data for May in next month’s MSR. But EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), shows that demand rebounded by 3.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) as of May 8, from the low point in the week of April 10 (lowest demand for April since 1970). With more than 30 states in various stages of re-opening, demand could be expected to increase along with rising economic activity. 


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Black Gold. Texas Tea. TxOPEC?

oil production  texas  demand  supply 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted April 16, 2020

Amid talk in Texas of production quotas (“proration”) and other extreme policies that have been suggested to address the oil demand downturn, API’s Monthly Statistical Report (MSR) shows that supply is responding in real time and that U.S. crude and refined storage capacities have some flexibility to adjust to the COVID-19 driven demand decrease – helping to alleviate the need for blanket policies or government interventions.

Notably, recent federal actions may help provide additional flexibility to the entire energy value chain. For example, the U.S. Department of Energy’s opening of crude oil storage capacity within the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to individual companies provides much-needed flexibility. Separately, Federal Reserve measures to either purchase corporate bonds or provide loans may perform additional triage for the energy industry and across the broader economy.

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Fuel Supply Networks are Responding Properly

fuel supply  gasoline  distillate demand  jet fuel 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted March 26, 2020

Supply networks for refined products – including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel – appear to be responding properly and flexibly to sudden and sharp declines for transportation fuel stemming from the coronavirus (COVID-19) and global efforts to slow its spread.

Market conditions can shift, yet API’s view at this point is that most refined products markets have continued to function well in keeping about a month’s worth of storage.

We gauge this in part by comparing recent inventory levels for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel with their ranges over the past five years. Although some products appear to have more available storage capacity than others, if needed, it also is apparent that the pace at which refiners produce fuels can provide additional adjustments which will affect demand for storage.


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API Reports Capture Market Uncertainties

monthly-stats-report  oil and natural gas production 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted March 19, 2020

As much as any other sector, global energy has felt the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) combined with lowering world demand and Russia and Saudi Arabia raising oil supply. We’ve seen crude oil prices cut in half within three months, which if sustained could rank among the most severe oil price downturns on record. Let’s discuss the most significant points for U.S. consumers, industry and the broader economy.

Details may be found in API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report, based on February U.S. petroleum data. Using weekly surveys of 90% of the natural gas and oil industry, we publish monthly data and analysis two months ahead of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). 


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High Stakes for the U.S. Response to Global Market Shifts

fuel supply  energy demand  opec 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted March 12, 2020

Global oil markets have shifted dramatically in recent days and weeks, and the stakes are high for the United States energy revolution, retirement savings and the broader economy.

Let’s start with crude oil prices. Per Bloomberg, the per-barrel price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on March 9 was about half of what it was on Dec. 31, falling to $31.13 from $61.06. 

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Electric Vehicles: If You Build Them, Will Buyers Come?

electric vehicles  consumers  energy demand 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted March 11, 2020

Several states are taking the lead to promote electric vehicles (EVs), and they’re not the states that produce them. From California and Oregon to New Jersey and Maryland, their promotions are mainly efforts intended to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

But even with large state incentives, are consumers onboard?   

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Largest, Most Competitive Natural Gas Market Benefits Consumers

natural gas  consumers  energy exports 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted February 3, 2020

So far this year, U.S. natural gas prices at Henry Hub have made for the lowest January record in over 45 years, adjusted for consumer price inflation. 

As of Jan. 29, the U.S. natural gas spot price at Henry Hub was $1.94 per million Btu – nearly 35% below the price of one year ago and 76% lower than in 2008.

In fact, we know from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that U.S. households saved an average of more than $120 per year on natural gas in 2018 compared with 2008. That’s $10 per month for more than 127,000,000 households – or $52 billion less spending on home and water heating.


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Pushing Back Against the 'American Recession Platform'

hydraullic fracturing  fracking  economic losses  oil and natural gas production 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted January 10, 2020

API’s new State of American Energy report illustrates how abundant U.S. natural gas and oil is empowering economic growth and opportunity across the country – and the potential harm to these benefits if fracking is banned, as some presidential candidates have promised to do.

The Washington Post’s Dino Grandoni has an analysis taking exception to the latter point, that banning hydraulic fracturing – the technology most responsible for launching the U.S. energy revolution – would seriously damage the U.S. economy, raise energy costs for American consumers and could likely trigger a recession at home and harm the global economy.

As an economist I would argue that an economic study isn’t needed to validate API’s point about a fracking ban. History shows what would happen if natural gas and oil production from the world’s leading producer was undercut by a fracking ban. According to independent studies, a sudden and enduring return to oil with triple-digit prices is the likely risk.

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Energy Gains in 2019 Set Stage for 2020

global markets  energy exports  production  trade 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted December 19, 2019

In this year-end edition of API’s Industry Outlook and Monthly Statistical Report (MSR) for December 2019, we make a toast to the natural gas and oil industry’s year of achievement and look forward to what appears to matter the most to U.S. energy consumers, producers and markets. 

Record U.S. natural gas and oil production, demand and exports – coupled with low prices – and regional economic growth have been supported by new resource and infrastructure developments.  Real domestic West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in 2019 have remained at about half of what they were 2011-2014, but with more than double the amount of home-grown oil production in 2019 compared with 2011. This has been an unabashed win for consumers, and it also has rejuvenated investments in resource development, processing, transportation, manufacturing and petrochemicals, as we discussed here.


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