Energy Tomorrow Blog
Posted September 20, 2018
In API’s latest Industry Outlook and Monthly Statistical Report, we have shifted from recognizing risks on the horizon to having a line of sight on some of them. The effects of trade disputes in particular have become tangible.
Most notably, at the same time as the U.S. celebrated another new record for crude oil production of 10.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), U.S. petroleum exports decreased by 1.3 mb/d over the past two months.
Posted August 16, 2018
Lots of positive energy data points in API’s newest Monthly Statistical Report – and one that’s potentially concerning.
The good is that the U.S. tied its record for crude oil production in July at 10.7 million barrels per day (b/d) and set a new one for natural gas liquids, 4.4 million b/d. With total liquids production up by more than 2 million b/d compared to July 2017, the U.S. has accounted for almost all of the growth in world oil production so far in 2018 – more than compensating for production losses elsewhere around the world.
Now the potential point of concern. The U.S. petroleum trade balance retreated in July, perhaps the result – at least in part – of trade tensions prompted by new U.S. tariffs. Crude export were down 240,000 b/d last month, and refined products exports decreased 220,000 b/d.
Posted July 20, 2018
Big news in the latest API Monthly Statistical Report: U.S. crude oil production rose to an all-time record of 10.7 million barrels per day (mbd) in June – the largest monthly output, ever. According to the MSR, June domestic crude production increased more than 100,000 barrels per day over May, and the total was 1.6 million barrels per day more than June a year ago. But let’s go back to that top-line number – 10.7 million barrels per day – and comprehend what it means:
Economic growth and jobs – but also our country’s energy security, supporting the promise of present and future prosperity and opportunity. That’s the gift of the American energy renaissance that, well, keeps on giving.
All of the above support an argument that – to ensure an adequate global supply of crude oil upon which the U.S. and global economies rely – we should look to sustain and grow domestic natural gas and oil production.
Posted June 20, 2018
Two charts pretty well capture the what’s at stake for U.S. energy – specifically exports of domestic crude oil – in an intensifying trade standoff between the United States and China.According to U.S. Energy Information Administration figures, this is a very big deal. Big as in U.S. crude oil exports to China accounted for about one-fifth of all U.S. oil exports in 2017 – growing from basically nothing in 2013 to 81.6 million barrels last year.
Posted June 14, 2018
With Wall Street Journal headlines such as “Trans-Atlantic Oil-Price Spread Soars as Supply Glut Disappears,” it might be hard to remember that the United States’ domestic oil production stood at a record 10.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, and the nation’s petroleum trade balance is in its best position in 50 years. This has reinforced U.S. energy security, lowered the trade deficit and boosted economic growth.
That said, given our country’s much improved energy outlook, some may question why we’re still importing crude oil and refined products. And, while we’re still importing oil, why do we export domestic crude – especially when prices have risen at the pump? Why don’t we just keep American oil at home? ...
Answers are found in an understanding of basic market realities.
Posted May 31, 2018
In a recently released report, the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development digs into the factors that have made the U.S. energy dominance possible, and – specifically – the role of natural gas in energy dominance.
Posted May 24, 2018
Let’s add some needed perspective in the ongoing discussion of U.S. gasoline prices – even as Washington politicians try to exploit them for their own agendas. The latest political play: Senate Democrats want the president to cajole other nations into producing more oil to increase supply in hopes of moderating things at the pump.
Certainly, increasing global crude supply is important, because in the past doing so has put downward pressure on the cost of crude, the No. 1 factor driving gasoline prices.But, since we’ve seen how much lower and less volatile prices have been the past four years, thanks to the growth of U.S. oil production, wouldn’t it be smarter to encourage greater oil production here at home? Senate Energy Committee Chairwoman Lisa Murkowski
Posted May 22, 2018
Washington is known for partisan political skirmishing, so it’s not surprising that a group of Senate Democrats is trying to score political points against this year’s tax reform legislation by suggesting that lowering the corporate income tax rate has been linked to the recent rise in gasoline prices.
Let’s straighten them out on a couple of important things about gasoline prices, which have nothing to do with tax reform.
First, per-barrel costs for crude oil – the No. 1 factor in the cost of producing gasoline and diesel – have risen due to a tighter global oil supply/demand balance and lower inventories compared to last year. Second, with a strong economy, U.S. petroleum demand has run at its highest levels since 2007 and was up by more than 750,000 barrels per day in April, compared with one year ago. Next, as they do every year around Memorial Day, the start of the summer driving season, Americans are traveling more, which could raise demand further. Finally, although gasoline prices have increased recently, they’re still lower than where they were four years ago, largely because of increased domestic oil production.
Posted May 10, 2018
The facts that crude oil prices are up 9 percent since the end of March and that crude oil currently accounts for 57 percent of the consumer’s price for gasolinemean that consumers have felt the impact at the pump of relatively large and sudden changes. As domestic crude oil prices recently increased above $70 per barrel for the first time since November 2014, let’s revisit current oil market fundamentals and other factors that have elevated prices.
By understanding the drivers of prices, American consumers may be more aware of how U.S. policy outcomes – such as more domestic natural gas and oil production, a strong U.S. dollar, low price inflation, avoidance of tariffs, quotas and other protectionist measures that undermine free trade, and peaceful international relations – could help put downward pressure on crude prices that ultimately benefits consumers.
Posted April 19, 2018
American consumers take a keen interest in energy prices, for the health of their pocketbooks as well as their livelihoods and security. More than 10.3 million people directly or indirectly support the industry, and tens of millions more people own or work for businesses that depend on having abundant and affordable energy.
What happens in energy markets also is important to our business literacy and understanding of how the United States’ role in global commerce has evolved thanks to the energy renaissance. Not so long ago, many energy-intensive U.S. industries were hollowed out as jobs moved offshore. Thanks to American innovation, today the high availability and low prices of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and oil have stimulated demand and investment while also helping to improve efficiency and return energy-related CO2 emissions to near their 25-year lows.