Energy Tomorrow Blog
Posted October 15, 2021
API’s new Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), based on U.S. petroleum primary market data through September, reinforced a combination of developments that has been recurrent so far in 2021 – that is, demand outpaced supply, inventories fell and, consequently, imports and prices rose.
Historically, this combination of factors has also led to further market tightening, which could put additional upward pressure on costs and prices.
The underlying drivers come back to the basics of demand, which reached a record high for the month of September at 20.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), and supply that has remained muted due to the industry’s continued financial, work force and supply chain constraints, coupled with a lack of policy support as we discussed here.
Posted October 8, 2021
Connecting some of the dots in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s new International Energy Outlook released this week, we see projections for continued global energy demand growth and increasing use of renewable energy, supported by natural gas and oil out to the year 2050.
EIA’s projections underscore a point we’ve been making for some time – that natural gas and oil are the world’s leading energy sources today and will be tomorrow.
Posted October 7, 2021
The fundamentals of natural gas demand outpacing supply have driven prices to their highest for the season since 2008, and some analysts expect a natural gas supply crunch with potentially wide impacts this winter – including potential market tightening that could significantly affect household budgets and perhaps could risk physical hardship for some.
In such a context, many Americans may have a hard time figuring out what’s happening and how it affects them: If natural gas prices have soared, why hasn’t production risen more quickly to meet post-pandemic energy demand and moderate the conditions driving up costs? And another one: Why is the U.S. still exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG)?
Posted July 20, 2021
Natural gas and oil are the energy foundation for U.S. economic growth, job creation and the opportunity for Americans to prosper all across the country. This is seen in a new analysis of our industry’s economywide and countrywide impacts: 11.3 million jobs supported in 2019 across all 50 states and the District of Columbia – generating 3.5 additional jobs elsewhere in the economy for each direct industry job, accounting for 5.6% of total U.S. employment; supported nearly $1.7 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product, or nearly 8% of the national total; supported nearly $900 billion in labor income or 6.8% of U.S. national labor income.
The analysis by PwC commissioned by API is based on the latest available government data (2019). Like other industry and business sectors, our industry was hard hit by the economic effects of the 2020 pandemic, but the 2019 data – generated during a period of robust U.S. growth, indicates the importance of the natural gas and oil industry post-pandemic, as the U.S. and global economies and petroleum demand ramp up. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects (EIA) that 2022 global oil and liquid fuels demand will eclipse 2019 levels.
Given EIA’s forecast, it’s critically important that national policy supports – and doesn’t hinder – domestic natural gas and oil production.
Posted July 15, 2021
As we await the Biden administration’s report on the federal natural gas and oil leasing program, let’s note the welcome news that oil and gas permitting approvals this year are on track to reach their highest levels since George W. Bush was president.
Permitting at that pace is good for near-term U.S. production, no question. In January, when the administration suspended new oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters, it said permitting would continue, and it has. The country benefits from safe, responsible and robust domestic natural gas and oil production.
Americans shouldn’t conflate permitting and leasing. Drilling permits are issued when companies are ready to develop from acreages, onshore and offshore, previously leased from the federal government. Put another way, leases typically are secured years before development occurs. We’re seeing permits go through at a significant rate because investment and planning have been completed and acreages are ready to go into production. Permitting is about production that’s imminent; leases represent energy in the future.
Posted July 8, 2021
The Biden administration says it is keeping a close eye on the OPEC+ talks on crude oil production because, as White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said, it wants “Americans to have access to affordable and reliable energy at the pump.”
Unfortunately, the U.S. is mostly a spectator as OPEC+ debates crude oil supply, which continues to be outpaced by demand, putting upward pressure on crude costs. Because the cost of crude is the biggest factor in gasoline prices, U.S. pump prices have reflected this mismatch between demand and supply.
Posted June 29, 2021
During a speech to the Houston Economics Club last week, API President and CEO Mike Sommers talked about the United States reaching an “inflection point” in terms of its energy and economic future. Choices made today could have impact far into the future.
As the world’s leading producer of the world’s leading energy – natural gas and oil – the U.S. can choose the market-based approach that over the past decade led to abundant domestic energy, supporting economic growth, reducing reliance on foreign oil and building greater security.
The other choice is the apparent approach of the Biden administration to curtail domestic production of natural gas and oil, swapping their reliability and affordability for aspirational fuels that could take the U.S. back to a period of energy uncertainty.
Posted June 16, 2021
Here are three things to consider as President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have their first in-person meeting today in Geneva, Switzerland: Energy is at the heart of Russia's influence and power; new U.S. policies put American energy leadership at risk; and U.S. oil and natural gas should be strengthened, not weakened. ...
There is no question the U.S. relationship with Russia is complicated and will be difficult for years to come. The last thing the U.S. needs is to try to deal with Russia while it is at the same time actively weakening its own energy position. It is an unforced error, an opening that cannot be handed over to formidable adversaries such as Mr. Putin.
Posted May 12, 2021
During a period of transition and change in our country, the natural gas and oil industry remains a foundation for progress, supplying the energy to run a modern economy – and doing so in ways that protect the environment and reduce emissions.
API President and CEO Mike Sommers emphasized those and related points in a speech to some of the nation’s leading energy producers at the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference in Bismarck, North Dakota.
Sommers described the natural gas and oil industry as one that is focused on producing for the American people as well as one that’s developing technologies and innovating to address the risks of climate change. Sommers said the most important environmental movement in the world is the U.S. natural gas and oil industry.
Posted April 21, 2021
Soon after the 2020 election we noted that results showed U.S. voters are mostly moderate and practical and want sensible solutions to key issues facing the nation, which Democratic pollster Mark Penn wrote is driven by common sense over ideology. Americans’ views on energy certainly fit that construct.
New polling by Morning Consult on behalf of API underscores the point and provides important context for Washington policymakers as they debate the twin issues of energy and climate.