Energy Tomorrow Blog
Oil Market Fundamentals Suggest 2021 May Recoup Much of 2020 Losses
oil markets economic recovery investments
Dean Foreman
Posted December 8, 2020
Although many uncertainties remain, oil market fundamentals have recently improved along with economic recovery from the 2020 COVID-19 recession, as we discussed here. If estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and others prove to be correct, 2021 could recoup much of the growth, spending, investment and energy demand that was forgone this year.
While 2020 has been an especially challenging year and business climate, what we’re seeing is that the U.S. natural gas and oil industry has resiliently increased its productivity to record levels, lowered its costs and expanded critical infrastructure to reposition for growth in a potential recovery.
A critical question for the United States — its economic growth, energy security and trade balance – concerns who will supply the market if it recovers as expected.
Continued Progress Seen in Petroleum Demand
petroleum demand oil markets growth
Dean Foreman
Posted September 11, 2020
While oil markets remain concerned over the outlook for petroleum demand – see John Kemp’s piece arguing there’s lost momentum – a number of important indicators of transportation and industrial activity corroborate API’s primary data suggesting a more nuanced landscape while also supporting the view that genuine progress has recently been achieved.
Since petroleum demand has remained a solid indicator of economic activity, the information has broad applicability to everyone who is concerned with what’s happening now. And for those of us in the industry, accurate and timely data are essential to the flow of real activities and investment dollars.
From here it looks like oil markets have been relatively impatient, having anticipated a continued tightening as demand has recovered and supply declined. The challenge is managing expectations for the rate of recovery.
Global Economic Recovery and Oil Markets in Context
economic recovery oil markets oil demand
Dean Foreman
Posted August 26, 2020
The 2020 global economic recession, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and government responses to it, is the deepest since World War II. Yet the World Bank, along with the Bloomberg consensus, expect global GDP growth to rebound in 2021.
It appears $15 trillion of global stimulus is likely to have a positive impact on economic growth – and, with enabling infrastructure, markets and policies, could become a source of optimism for global oil markets.
Historically, global GDP growth and increased oil demand have gone together – once there’s impetus for growth there must be energy to fuel that growth.
U.S. Petroleum Markets – July Progress and a Potential Turning Point
monthly-stats-report economic growth oil markets
Dean Foreman
Posted August 21, 2020
We’re seeing cautious optimism in the news about oil markets, with crude’s comeback broadly continuing for a third consecutive month in July with the gradual re-opening of state economies. API’s Monthly Statistical Report (MSR) for August presents the latest details.
U.S. petroleum demand has clearly rebounded, albeit at a slowing growth rate. We see this as good news for staying on a positive track and reflective of progress made to overcome continued challenges with COVID-19.
Energy Operators Will Weather the Coronavirus
oil markets energy demand oil and natural gas production
Lem Smith
Posted April 23, 2020
While the current decline in crude oil demand and market uncertainty present significant challenges, America’s natural gas and oil producers – especially those using hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling – are resilient and remain financially viable, supported by the world’s need for energy.
Contrary to some narratives, our industry is poised to fuel renewed growth once the U.S. and other nations get past the COVID-19 crisis. Natural gas and oil have and will again power modern economic expansion.
Oil Futures and Fundamental Oil Demand
oil markets demand oil and natural gas production
Mark Green
Posted April 21, 2020
Experienced industry hands say they’ve never seen anything like Monday’s trading on May futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI), which closed in negative territory.
While the natural gas and oil industry certainly isn’t alone in weathering the COVID-19 crisis, our impacts probably are more visible than most other sectors, underscored by Monday’s negative trading on oil futures. Three things to know ...
Comparing Price Volatility in Equities, Crude Oil
Dean Foreman
Posted March 15, 2018
Oil Markets, Regulatory Wisdom and Policy Vision
regulation ozone opec oil markets liquefied natural gas energy exports offshore leasing
Mark Green
Posted March 18, 2015
The Hill: Business groups are waging war on the Obama administration’s proposal to reduce ozone pollution, arguing the regulations would cripple the U.S. economy.
In order to comply with the proposed rule, many areas of the country would have to all but shut down land development and oil and natural gas drilling, industry groups charged on the final day for comments.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is being spurred on by greens and health groups, who argue that lower ozone emissions would benefit public health. The agency, they contend, is obligated to adopt the stricter standards.
But the rules would translate to higher electric bills for American families, the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity is said in comments it filed Tuesday.
EPA vs. EPA – Keystone XL Round
epa keystone xl pipeline politics science oil markets renewable fuel standard
Bob Greco
Posted February 5, 2015
Two of the Environmental Protection Agency’s seven statements of purpose reference “best available scientific information” and “accurate information.” These also happen to be two things that many in Washington, D.C., feel that EPA is setting aside in the pursuit of political goals. Yesterday the agency released comments on the Keystone XL pipeline that gave plenty of credence to its critics.
It is somewhat of a shame, because EPA’s comments did make many good points. It acknowledged the comprehensiveness of the State Departments review of the project, the usefulness of mitigation measures the project will take to reduce environmental impact and the reduction of risks associated with spills and leaks from the pipeline. And then we begin to drift from accurate information into political calculation.