Energy Tomorrow Blog
Posted November 15, 2018
Earlier this year we pointed out that a roller coaster of emerging economic factors could affect oil markets and, ultimately, consumers – and we were correct.
Rising interest rates, trade and tariff disputes, near decade-high U.S. dollar appreciation and potential financial market uncertainties have become pronounced over the past few months, affecting global crude oil markets and producing the strongest correlation between financial markets and oil prices in years.
Posted December 9, 2015
The U.S. shale energy revolution is a game-changer – for the United States and the world’s energy balance. The U.S. has become the No. 1 producer of oil and natural gas, resulting from a domestic energy renaissance driven by advanced hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling – fracking. And the positive impacts are all around us.
U.S. crude imports are down, and American energy self-sufficiency is up. An America that’s more energy self-sufficient is more secure. Meanwhile, the global crude market is better supplied and more stable – thanks to the availability of crude that would have been imported to the U.S. Domestic pump prices reflect this well-supplied market. At the same time, greater use of natural gas has increased each American household’s disposable income by $1,200, and IHS says the benefit will grow to more than $3,500 in 2025. Thanks, fracking.
Posted June 23, 2015
Fuelfix.com – President Barack Obama “understands” the argument for exporting U.S. crude, a leading Democratic advocate said Monday.
“He understands,” Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “He is in that category of understanding. I think his State Department understands how significant this could be to soft power. I think his Energy Department understands that this is bad economics and bad for the resource.”
Heitkamp stressed that she couldn’t speak for the administration, but added that “at the highest level, they understand this policy is not a good policy.”
Still, when it comes to the politically treacherous subject of widely exporting U.S. oil — which has been under heavy restrictions since the 1970s — “everybody wants to get together and . . . make a bipartisan decision to do this,” Heitkamp added.
Posted May 21, 2015
Consumers have felt some of the fruits of America’s energy revolution, API Chief Economist John Felmy told reporters in a pre-Memorial Day conference call.
Felmy noted that drivers are paying about $1 less per gallon of gasoline on average nationwide than they did at this time a year ago, according to AAA. He said that thanks to advanced hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, the U.S. energy resurgence has offset production declines in other parts of the world, which has resulted in a more stable global market for crude oil – and relief at the gas pump. He added that the U.S. energy picture currently is characterized by strong domestic supply, moderate demand, increasingly efficient production and a refining sector that’s turning out record amounts of gasoline.
Felmy said the right energy choices by our country’s leaders can help continue the energy revolution.
Posted May 6, 2015
The opportunity to stimulate increased domestic production of oil and natural gas, create jobs, spur the economy and enhance America’s ability to positively shape world events is at hand – waiting only on the stroke of a pen. Lifting the United States’ four-decades-old ban on crude oil exports could help advance all of the above, and it all could be launched with the stroke of a pen.
Encana President and CEO Doug Suttles and API President and CEO Jack Gerard emphasized the relative ease with which the 1970s-era export ban could be ended, as well as the building political momentum for action, during a conference call with reporters.
Gerard said the ban could be lifted through the exercise of presidential authority or by the president signing legislation from Congress. Gerard:
“There is a consensus building in the country. We see strong bipartisan support in the House and now rolling in the Senate. So overall, we think the momentum continues to build as people better understand all of the issues. … Job creation, benefit to our trade imbalance, revenues to government, lowering the price at the pump. … It’s just a matter of time now before that pen is deployed to allow this to happen.”
Posted March 27, 2015
Add the heft of Rice University’s respected Center for Energy Studies to the weight of scholarly analysis urging an end to America’s four-decades-old ban on domestic crude oil exports. In a new study, the center lays out a case for U.S. crude oil exports that builds on the findings of IHS, ICF, Brookings, the Aspen Institute/MAPI and others – saying that lifting the ban would result in significant economic and foreign policy benefits to the U.S.
The study explains that the export ban already is presenting a “binding constraint” on the domestic market, leading to “discounted” pricing for lighter crudes produced by America’s energy revolution. It also notes that large volumes of lighter domestic crudes, in excess of what the U.S. refining sector can use, with no access to other markets, are discounted compared to global crude prices.
access crude crude markets domestic energy e15 economic benefits emissions energy regulation epa fracking gasoline prices global markets horizontal drilling hydraulic fracturing methane emissions offshore access oil and natural gas development ozone regulation renewable fuel standard
Posted December 31, 2014
So long, 2014. From an energy standpoint, you’ll be missed. Let’s count the ways:
Surging domestic oil and natural gas production – largely thanks to safe hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling – is driving an American energy revolution that’s creating jobs here at home and greater security for the United States in the world.
It’s a revolution with macro-economic and geopolitical impacts, for sure. But it’s also a revolution that’s benefit virtually every American.
Posted December 31, 2014
Business Day: For years, Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pulled the strings set the price of oil and controlled the supply. After dictating the course of oil prices for more than 50 years, OPEC is finding its influence diminished.
Right now, OPEC represents about 40 percent of global daily production. The organization still has a say in what the energy market looks like. But for OPEC, oil can no longer be used as either a weapon or as a lever. There is simply too much production arising beyond the control of OPEC.
For 2015, US will emerge as dominant player. OPEC member countries are gradually losing the largest energy market in the world and the irony is that they will soon be competing for the markets that used to be theirs for the taking. Projections from recent happenings reveal that in 2015 the US will start dictating to the market. With the advent in 2015 of large US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the effect is even larger, and with it comes the hastening of OPEC’s decline.
Posted August 29, 2014
Supply matters. The impact of the U.S. energy revolution on global supply, with real benefits reaching consumers, is seen we head into the Labor Day weekend. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports the U.S. average retail price for gasoline on Aug. 25 was the lowest price on the Monday before Labor Day since 2010. EIA explains:
The recent decline in gasoline prices largely reflects changes in crude oil prices. In June of this year, the Brent spot price reached its year-to-date high of $115/barrel (bbl), then fell to $102/bbl on August 22. Current Brent prices are below their August average level over the past three years, which ranged between $110/bbl and $113/bbl.
This parallels another EIA report, crediting the surge in U.S. crude oil production with a more stabilized global crude market:
Record-setting liquid fuels production growth in the United States has more than offset the rise in unplanned global supply disruptions over the past few years … U.S. liquid fuels production, which includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, biofuels, and refinery processing gain, grew by more than 4.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) from January 2011 to July 2014, of which 3.0 million bbl/d was crude oil production growth. During that same period, global unplanned supply disruptions grew by 2.8 million bbl/d. U.S. production growth, the main factor counterbalancing the supply disruptions on the global oil market, has contributed to a decrease in crude oil price volatility since 2011.
More simply, supply matters. Because crude oil is traded globally, every additional barrel of U.S. production going into that market has impact.
Posted August 27, 2014
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has a chart showing what a number of experts have been saying – that America’s domestic energy surge has countered a rise in unexpected supply disruptions around the globe in recent years.
EIA says U.S. liquid fuels production – including crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, biofuels and refinery processing gain – grew by more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd) from January 2011 to July 2014. Of that total, 3 million bpd was growth in crude output. Over the same period unplanned global supply disruptions as calculated by EIA grew by 2.8 million bpd. The result is a more stable global market for crude.