Energy Tomorrow Blog
Posted September 17, 2021
Global oil and natural gas investments have fallen to record lows so far in 2021, as we recently discussed here. Yet, demand for both has risen alongside the economic recovery. Consequently, supplies haven’t kept pace with demand, and the mismatch between the two propelled gasoline and natural gas prices this summer to their highest levels since 2014.
In fact, global natural gas prices set a record-high for summer months as demand outdistanced supply. Oil prices eased in August following a 16% run-up over the previous three months for Brent crude oil, but were back above $70 per barrel in mid-September.
Although economic and pandemic-related uncertainties and expected OPEC+ output increases have also likely impacted prices, the lack of investment for oil and natural gas production is an ominous sign, given that major conventional global oil and natural gas projects can take years to start producing. We could be in for global oil market tightening in 2022 and further upward pressure on prices, with prices already at their highest level since 2014.
Posted February 24, 2021
It’s possible we could be headed for a shortfall in global oil supply as soon as next year – pretty remarkable considering where oil demand was last spring, with economies slowing under the weight of the pandemic.
Based on projected rising demand, the natural production decline from existing wells and decreases in drilling activity and industry investment – especially in the U.S. – the world’s oil needs could outpace production in 2022. An undersupply potentially could put upward pressure on costs, impacting consumers, manufacturers and, generally, any process that utilizes oil.
Posted September 25, 2019
Energy is essential to a modern standard of living, and as the leading energy sources, natural gas and oil are foundational to almost everything we do – lighting our homes, heating our hospitals and powering our workplaces.
The U.S. is the world’s leading natural gas and oil producer, which is critically important given new projections that global energy consumption will increase nearly 50% by 2050. Though reliable access to energy often is taken for granted in this country, people in other parts of the world struggle to obtain the energy needed for sustainable development and to empower basic human progress.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), nearly one in eight people around the world lives without electricity, and 2.7 billion people currently are without access to clean cooking facilities. Without power for heating, lighting and advanced technologies, human potential is severely limited. And in the absence of cleaner fuels, people must use coal, kerosene, biomass and other energy sources to prepare food, which contributes to harmful and unnecessary indoor air pollution.
Posted June 19, 2019
Another big indication of the global impact of the U.S. energy revolution comes in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) oil market report and its outlook for 2020, which says the United States will be responsible for virtually all of this year’s increase in oil supply. …
The fact that the U.S. is projected to fill this role is significant in terms of global market stability and the world’s security – that is, the United States as this growth supplier, versus less stable and/or less friendly regimes.
Posted June 13, 2019
John Watson, then the chairman and CEO of Chevron, once was asked how the natural gas and oil industry is perceived since so much of the climate discussion is aimed solely at producing fossil fuels.
Unflinchingly, Watson countered that his industry is a noble one – delivering light, heat, transportation, food, clothing and other benefits to people every day – and that natural gas and oil are foundational for almost everything that we use and do. Simply put, Watson asserted that natural gas and oil are forces for good in human development and far from a deterrent (and instead an enabler) of climate progress.
It was an argument for the societal value of natural gas and oil and the opportunities they create, thanks to U.S. energy abundance.
Posted March 26, 2019
Natural gas is playing a lead role in meeting rapidly increasing global energy demand, and its growing use in electricity generation has resulted in significant savings in carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. These points were echoed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Global Energy and CO2 Status Report released this week.
Posted January 18, 2019
The new Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) details the vigor of American crude oil production and strengthening U.S. energy security. This is good news for the economy, consumers and America's place in the world.
Consider that EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018, an increase of 1.6 million b/d over 2017. EIA says production reached its highest level and had its largest volume growth on record.
EIA estimates crude oil and petroleum products net imports fell to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018, from 3.8 million b/d in 2017 – and 12.5 million b/d in 2005. And EIA forecasts that net imports will keep declining this year, to an average of 1.1 million b/d and to less than 0.1 million b/d in 2020. EIA forecasts that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products by about 0.9 million b/d.
Posted December 22, 2014
Posted June 26, 2014
Washington Post: Even Democrats who prefer to develop alternate energy sources before expanding the use of fossil fuels say they want the Keystone XL pipeline built.
The new Pew "Political Typology" report shows huge majorities of all four Democratic-leaning groups support the development of wind, solar and hydrogen alternatives to oil, coal and natural gas. But of those same four groups, the Keystone XL pipeline is still overwhelmingly popular in three of them.
Among "hard-pressed skeptics," "next generation left" and "faith and family left," support for Keystone is two-to-one. So even as a group like the "next generation left" group supports alternate energy over fossil fuels 83-11, it still backs Keystone 62-28.
Posted June 13, 2014
Business Insider: Brent oil futures briefly began approaching $115 this morning, the highest level in nine months, as fears that Iraq is disintegrating spooked markets.
Crude is now up about 4% on the week. When prices stay at this level for this long, U.S. gas prices start creeping up.
But what about all the oil the U.S. has been producing the last few years? Shouldn't we be insulated from whatever oil is doing?
Unfortunately, the answer is no. Gasoline prices are set on the global market, and refiners everywhere ship product to wherever they can get the best quote. So for better or worse, raw gasoline prices mostly move in lockstep around the world. The primary contract for gasoline is called RBOB.