Energy Tomorrow Blog
Low Investment and Implications for Global Supply
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Dean Foreman
Posted September 17, 2021
Global oil and natural gas investments have fallen to record lows so far in 2021, as we recently discussed here. Yet, demand for both has risen alongside the economic recovery. Consequently, supplies haven’t kept pace with demand, and the mismatch between the two propelled gasoline and natural gas prices this summer to their highest levels since 2014.
In fact, global natural gas prices set a record-high for summer months as demand outdistanced supply. Oil prices eased in August following a 16% run-up over the previous three months for Brent crude oil, but were back above $70 per barrel in mid-September.
Although economic and pandemic-related uncertainties and expected OPEC+ output increases have also likely impacted prices, the lack of investment for oil and natural gas production is an ominous sign, given that major conventional global oil and natural gas projects can take years to start producing. We could be in for global oil market tightening in 2022 and further upward pressure on prices, with prices already at their highest level since 2014.
Is the World About to See an Oil Shortage?
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Dean Foreman
Posted February 24, 2021
It’s possible we could be headed for a shortfall in global oil supply as soon as next year – pretty remarkable considering where oil demand was last spring, with economies slowing under the weight of the pandemic.
Based on projected rising demand, the natural production decline from existing wells and decreases in drilling activity and industry investment – especially in the U.S. – the world’s oil needs could outpace production in 2022. An undersupply potentially could put upward pressure on costs, impacting consumers, manufacturers and, generally, any process that utilizes oil.
Harvey Update: Price Impacts and the Need for Patience, Consideration
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Mark Green
Posted September 6, 2017
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports on rising gasoline prices in the wake of Hurricane Harvey and notes that the storm’s impact on prices is similar to the big hurricanes of 2005, Katrina and Rita. … EIA’s report underscores a number of points we’ve been making about the oil supply chain, of which the Texas-Louisiana region is part – especially the section of that chain that shows the path of refined products from refineries to retail outlets – and the need for patience as processes come back online.
Maritime System Delivers Energy for America
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Mark Green
Posted May 26, 2015
Thinking about American energy, one underappreciated component is our national maritime system – connecting sources of oil with U.S. destinations and also exported domestic resources that help make the U.S. an energy superpower. National Maritime Day last week reminds us of the vital link this system provides in the energy supply chain.
Noteable: America’s marine highway system consists of more than 29,000 nautical miles of navigable waterways – the most extensive system in the world – infrastructure that’s vital to our economy, about 42 percent of all waterborne trade in the U.S. in 2012 was comprised of crude or petroleum products, reflecting the fact the U.S. imports about 10 million barrels of oil per day and more.
Rising U.S. Oil Supply and the Impact on Global Markets
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Mark Green
Posted May 17, 2013
Increasing U.S. domestic production of oil matters. Energy Information Administration (EIA) chief Adam Sieminski had this analysis at an energy conference earlier this week (h/t Breaking Energy):
“There’s a fairly significant, long-standing relationship between spare production capacity in OPEC and what the pricing environment is for oil. So the 2 million barrel per day increase in U.S. oil production that surprisingly took place over the last five years has resulted in higher OPEC spare capacity, and undoubtedly, has been a factor in why Brent oil prices are $103-$104/bbl rather than $125-$130/bbl.”
Oil Supply – Yes We Can
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Kyle Isakower
Posted March 13, 2012
Opponents of increased domestic oil production like to portray the U.S. as being helpless in the face of worldwide events. This argument sometimes takes this form:
… with only 2% of the world’s oil reserves, we can’t just drill our way to lower gas prices – not when consume 20% of the world’s oil.
Gasoline Prices Update
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Mark Green
Posted May 27, 2011
The Peak Oil Dilemma
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Jane Van Ryan
Posted October 8, 2010
Gasoline Prices Track Crude Oil Costs
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Jane Van Ryan
Posted March 11, 2010
Peak Oil Demand
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Jane Van Ryan
Posted February 5, 2010