Energy Tomorrow Blog
Posted June 20, 2019
API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report (MSR) underscores just how much recent oil production growth exceeded the pace of record U.S. domestic needs and crude oil exports, resulting in higher inventories. This production and cushion for the market have kept oil and fuel prices low, and all these factors have contributed to a stronger economy with greater U.S. energy security.
Along with the separate Industry Outlook presentation, covering energy market developments for the second quarter of 2019, we see U.S. oil and natural gas output continuing to set records, helped by low breakeven prices and productivity that underpin the longevity of the domestic energy revolution –as we discussed here.
Posted June 19, 2019
Another big indication of the global impact of the U.S. energy revolution comes in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) oil market report and its outlook for 2020, which says the United States will be responsible for virtually all of this year’s increase in oil supply. …
The fact that the U.S. is projected to fill this role is significant in terms of global market stability and the world’s security – that is, the United States as this growth supplier, versus less stable and/or less friendly regimes.
Posted June 13, 2019
John Watson, then the chairman and CEO of Chevron, once was asked how the natural gas and oil industry is perceived since so much of the climate discussion is aimed solely at producing fossil fuels.
Unflinchingly, Watson countered that his industry is a noble one – delivering light, heat, transportation, food, clothing and other benefits to people every day – and that natural gas and oil are foundational for almost everything that we use and do. Simply put, Watson asserted that natural gas and oil are forces for good in human development and far from a deterrent (and instead an enabler) of climate progress.
It was an argument for the societal value of natural gas and oil and the opportunities they create, thanks to U.S. energy abundance.
Posted June 13, 2019
The administration’s back-and-forth trade policies and near-constant threat of tariffs have left many American businesses and consumers uneasy.
We received some good news last week as President Trump ultimately decided against imposing a new 5 percent tariff on all imported goods from Mexico. But while trade with Mexico might be on even ground for now, the already tense U.S.-China trade relations have shown no sign of letting up. Now, the Administration has threatened a fourth round (subscription publication) of tariffs on Chinese imports, this time on List 4 goods, if a trade deal with China is not reached at the G20 summit later this month.
Let’s take a moment to remember that U.S. consumers are the ones hurt by tariffs, which are a tax on goods that millions of U.S. families and businesses use every day.
Posted June 12, 2019
The U.S. energy revolution continues to surge ahead – but you might not know it from some recent headlines: “The Shale Boom Is About To Go Bust” (Oil Price.com); “Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast” (Wall Street Journal); “U.S. Oil Production Is Headed For A Quick Decline” (Oil Price.com)
Actually, domestic natural gas and oil production continues to expand. See API’s most recent Monthly Statistical Report. For some of the same reasons economists are so bad at predicting recessions, sometimes analysts may struggle to accurately project where U.S. energy is heading. After all, the shale revolution’s prospects have been underestimated since it launched.
Posted June 11, 2019
We’ve warned before (see here, here and here) that the broken Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and its mandates for ever-increasing ethanol use put consumers at risk. And that the administration’s recent decision to allow summer sales of E15 fuel – a blend containing 50 percent more ethanol than the E10 gasoline that’s widespread across the country – is an ineffective approach to addressing concerns with the RFS that will only serve to make things worse. Now, we can add another report to the long list of evidence that the RFS needs to be sunset – this time coming from the non-partisan U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO).The GAO recently reviewed the effects of the RFS and found that requiring the use of corn-based ethanol and biodiesel in gasoline supplies hasn’t lowered pump prices or significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions – two of the main goals of the flawed RFS program. In fact, the review finds that gas prices outside of the corn-rich Midwest likely increased because of the program. To make matters worse, the review also found that there has been little, if any, reduction in greenhouse gas emissions – a main selling point used by proponents to justify the program.
Posted June 10, 2019
From the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico to Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay, the U.S. has not just the resources but an industry with the technology and skill to develop them safely.
Take for example the North Slope of Alaska, an area poised to re-emerge as a “super basin” following discoveries like Willow, Pikka and Liberty. The resurgence has been great news for the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, or TAPS — backbone of Alaska energy and critical pillar of U.S. energy security. TAPS throughput is ticking up, and new finds in National Petroleum Reserve Alaska, or NPR-A, could singlehandedly increase its volume by 18 percent. ...
On so many levels, U.S. energy security, and our national security, is tied to keeping Alaska energy strong.
Posted June 6, 2019
Following past White House precedent, President Trump recently designated June 2019 as National Ocean Month in recognition of the ocean’s role in supporting the U.S. economy, national security and environment, while recommitting to safeguard its vital resources.
The U.S. offshore energy industry wholeheartedly supports the sentiments in the president’s proclamation and demonstrates this day in and day out.
Posted June 4, 2019
Some important points as the U.S. House Select Committee on Intelligence meets this week to talk about the impacts of climate change on U.S. security interests, global humanitarian conditions and other issues.
First, U.S. security is the responsibility of the U.S. military, which is the largest government user of energy, ranking ahead of many countries in overall energy use. More than any other energy sources and by a wide margin, natural gas and oil power America’s military.
Second, U.S. national security is directly tied to having access to safe, reliable, abundant energy and also decreasing dependence on energy supplied by other nations. Thanks to the U.S. energy revolution, resulting in record oil production, America’s dependence on others has fallen significantly since 2006.
Third, on the humanitarian issue, U.S. natural gas and oil offer a golden opportunity to lift regions and even entire countries out of energy poverty – with power for electricity that’s unavailable to nearly 1 billion people on earth and clean fuel for home heating and cooking, which about 2.7 billion people currently live without.
Posted June 3, 2019
The administration’s decision to allow summer sales of E15 fuel – a blend containing 50 percent more ethanol than the E10 gasoline that’s widespread across the country – is a disappointing and ineffective approach to addressing concerns with the broken Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).
EPA’s rulemaking that extends the RVP waiver, effectively lifting a ban on summertime E15 sales, only worsens risks for U.S. consumers – given repeated warnings that pushing more E15 into the fuel supply could harm the vast majority of vehicles on the road that aren’t designed to use it, as well as engines in motorcycles, boats and lawn equipment for which E15 is incompatible. All to help farmers struggling under the weight of the administration’s own harmful trade tariffs.
It may seem obvious, but apparently it needs stating: EPA should be most concerned about the interests of U.S. consumers as it forms policy, not cleaning up messes caused by the administration’s flawed trade policy.