Energy Tomorrow Blog
Posted January 14, 2021
API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report (MSR) underscores the importance to industry of producing essential materials during the pandemic – including sterile packaging, medical plastics and antimicrobial coatings, including polymers.
Naphtha and gasoil in refining and petrochemicals increased 10.3% year over year (y/y) in December to a record-high of 5.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 31.3% of total U.S. petroleum demand. Again, industry benefited from this demand and in the process helped the nation respond to the pandemic. The technical term for that is “win-win.”
December also produced an important milestone – confirmation that the U.S. was a petroleum net exporter on an annual basis for the first time in more than 60 years. It’s remarkable given the headwinds of COVID-19 and increased pressure for nations to become self-reliant. The abundance, affordability and empowering nature of U.S. petroleum has helped cut through pessimism about global trade.
Posted December 18, 2020
Last week, I was honored to participate in the Women’s Business Enterprise National Council’s (WBENC) Energy Week and present at the State of Energy Industry Webinar, alongside a distinguished group of panelists representing every segment of the natural gas and oil industry to discuss the challenges facing the sector, as well as the opportunities for natural gas and oil operators in the year ahead.
This industry, like many others, has navigated the coronavirus pandemic, the nation’s racial reckoning, the election season and the ongoing economic fallout from widespread shutdowns. Across the board, API members have demonstrated unwavering resilience, finding ways to deliver essential energy products while protecting the health and safety of our workers, communities and the environment.
Posted December 17, 2020
Celebrating normalcy long has marked Americans’ emergence from a variety of national crises. It’s the same with COVID-19. As we emerge from the pandemic, we dearly want to celebrate a return to normal. Thankfully, as the economy recovers, natural gas and oil are doing their part.
Posted December 1, 2020
The year has brought extreme and at times contradictory information about the economy and our industry, making it increasingly difficult to determine whether the economic recovery has gained firm footing and ultimately traction, in which natural gas and oil will play a key role.
Importantly, we currently see well-grounded pillars for expected U.S. and global economic growth over the next two years – personal consumption expenditures and investment that generally represent the majority of GDP. These could kickstart new economic growth and prosperity that will not only require but fundamentally be enabled by oil and natural gas.
Posted November 19, 2020
While the International Energy Agency and OPEC recently lowered their expectations for global oil demand for this year and the next, the United States has continued to make measured progress, according to API’s latest primary data.
In October, U.S. petroleum markets reflected a U.S. economic recovery in progress. Demand increased broadly among fuels – diesel, jet fuel, other oils and gasoline among urban areas.
While these offer solid indications of domestic activity, international trade – particularly the pull for U.S. refined products – picked up in October. Moreover, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects record high U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in November.
Posted September 11, 2020
While oil markets remain concerned over the outlook for petroleum demand – see John Kemp’s piece arguing there’s lost momentum – a number of important indicators of transportation and industrial activity corroborate API’s primary data suggesting a more nuanced landscape while also supporting the view that genuine progress has recently been achieved.
Since petroleum demand has remained a solid indicator of economic activity, the information has broad applicability to everyone who is concerned with what’s happening now. And for those of us in the industry, accurate and timely data are essential to the flow of real activities and investment dollars.
From here it looks like oil markets have been relatively impatient, having anticipated a continued tightening as demand has recovered and supply declined. The challenge is managing expectations for the rate of recovery.
Posted August 26, 2020
The 2020 global economic recession, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and government responses to it, is the deepest since World War II. Yet the World Bank, along with the Bloomberg consensus, expect global GDP growth to rebound in 2021.
It appears $15 trillion of global stimulus is likely to have a positive impact on economic growth – and, with enabling infrastructure, markets and policies, could become a source of optimism for global oil markets.
Historically, global GDP growth and increased oil demand have gone together – once there’s impetus for growth there must be energy to fuel that growth.
Posted June 19, 2020
We’ve discussed the historic link between economic growth and energy – chiefly, natural gas and oil, America’s and the world’s leading energy sources. When the economy grows it boosts demand for energy. And when that energy is supplied, growth is enabled or powered. See this blog by API Chief Economist Dean Foreman, in which he describes data behind our confidence that natural gas and oil will be big participants in the nation’s economic recovery.
Indeed, the indicators of this linkage are visible in API’s June Monthly Statistical Report. Based on May data, the MSR records an increase in U.S. petroleum demand of 2.0 million barrels per day, with motor gasoline leading the way. It’s the largest such increase in nearly 45 years.
Americans are getting back to work, and as they do, they need fuel. Likewise, rising fuel demand reflects increased demand for transportation and delivery of goods and services. As our industry meets this demand, growth is enabled.
Posted June 9, 2020
As businesses reopen across the country, the U.S. economy is beginning to emerge from the widespread shutdowns caused by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. America’s energy operators are poised to safely and responsibly power our economic recovery, and the latest market data shows that the initial phases are well underway.
While the short-term outlook remains unclear, energy analysts have consistently backed the strength of this industry’s fundamentals, and long-term forecasts signal demand growth for natural gas and oil through the next several decades.
Posted May 21, 2020
After crude oil futures prices plunged into negative territory for a day last month, there was a good deal of speculation that the same thing could happen this month. Some even pointed to the April futures meltdown as a “doomsday” scenario for U.S. natural gas and oil.
Well, a number of things happened on the way to oil’s “doomsday.”
At the outset, let’s note that what happened with futures in April didn’t repeat this month. Oil futures prices for June delivery of West Texas Intermediate crude, whose contracts expired Tuesday, closed at $32.50 per barrel – about 300% higher than they did for those contracts a month ago. Let’s explore why.