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Energy Tomorrow Blog

Divergent Times for U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Demand, Supply

monthly-stats-report  supply  oil demand  imports 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted September 22, 2021

Economics and energy market data for the third quarter of 2021 were marked by divergences. That’s the main thrust of API’s quarterly Industry Outlook for Q3 2021 and Monthly Statistical Report (MSR) with primary data for August. 

Demand for oil and natural gas has risen strongly along with the economic recovery, as we discussed here. At the same time, global oil and natural gas investments have fallen to record lows so far in 2021, (see here). Consequently, supplies have failed to keep pace with demand and generally resulted in lower inventories, higher U.S. imports and the strongest prices for crude oil, gasoline and natural gas since 2014.

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API MSR: Highest Petroleum Demand Since 2019; Imports and Prices Rose in July

monthly-stats-report  demand  consumers 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted August 19, 2021

As the summer driving season motors on, we’re watching not only the impacts of seasonally higher gasoline prices on U.S. households, but also costs in other areas affecting family budgets – and whether those costs are seasonal or longer-lasting. This is the context for API’s new Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), based on July data.

   

As we discussed here, U.S. consumers have benefitted recently from fuels and products derived from relatively inexpensive domestic crude oil and natural gas – well below international price levels. This was due to abundant domestic crude oil production. 

That’s changed now. Domestic production is lower, partly due to the aftereffects of the 2020 COVID-19 recession as well as the delay or cancellation of energy projects that take years to complete.  In this sense, the pulse of U.S. petroleum markets is vital, and API’s primary data can offer a leading perspective.

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MSR: June Petroleum Demand Outpaces Supply, Imports Rise

monthly-stats-report  demand  supply  economic growth 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted July 21, 2021

It’s great for the U.S. economy that, with urban re-openings and the onset of the summer driving season, petroleum demand returned to over 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June, according to API’s primary data presented in our latest Monthly Statistical Report (MSR).

 

However, domestic oil supplies have not been able keep pace, and consequently U.S. crude oil imports and consumer prices have suddenly risen, which ultimately could contribute to the list of expenses stressing household budgets, such as higher costs for housing, vehicles and many other goods and services.

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U.S. Mostly a Spectator While Others Address Supply-Demand Pinch

opec  white house  oil and natural gas production  supply  demand 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted July 8, 2021

The Biden administration says it is keeping a close eye on the OPEC+ talks on crude oil production because, as White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said, it wants “Americans to have access to affordable and reliable energy at the pump.”

Unfortunately, the U.S. is mostly a spectator as OPEC+ debates crude oil supply, which continues to be outpaced by demand, putting upward pressure on crude costs. Because the cost of crude is the biggest factor in gasoline prices, U.S. pump prices have reflected this mismatch between demand and supply. 

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Q&A: The Demand/Supply Dilemma, Consumer Impacts and the Need for Sound Policy

demand  supply  us energy security  production  consumers  gasoline prices 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted July 1, 2021

In recent weeks API Chief Economist Dean Foreman has noted the return of petroleum demand, as economies strengthen in the U.S. and globally, to a level that’s outpacing supply (see here). In the Q&A that follows, Dr. Foreman discusses the impacts of the supply-demand mismatch on American consumers and markets, as well as the consequences of the Biden administration’s energy policy signals.

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Oil Demand Back, But Supply Remains Key Question

monthly-stats-report  supply  oil demand 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted June 17, 2021

The expectations and real prospects for global and U.S. economic recovery – and energy markets along with them – have accelerated and appear bright. That’s the overarching point in API’s quarterly Industry Outlook for Q2 2021 and Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), echoing what we have said since the third quarter of last year (see here, here and here). 

 

Yet, while API’s primary data for May 2021 show the recoveries in U.S. economic growth and petroleum demand have continued to go hand-in-hand, potential record global oil demand growth this year and the next, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), could be overshadowed by the lowest industry-wide real capital expenditures on record for any quarter, by API estimates.

 

Demand up and capital investment down by record amounts is a concerning combination.

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MSR: U.S. Petroleum Demand Up, Pushing Domestic Production to Keep Pace

monthly-stats-report  energy demand  gasoline demand 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted May 20, 2021

API’s primary data for April 2021 evidenced momentum for the broader U.S. economic recovery, as petroleum demand and refining activity rose, supply remained solid and leading economic indicators pointed higher.

The April headline figure was that total U.S. petroleum demand of 19.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) rose by 2.5% from March and to within 3.5% of its level in April 2019, which was its highest for the month in 11 years.

Contemplate that for a second: For all of the dislocation and continuing issues with recovery from COVID-19 pandemic, total petroleum demand in April was within a sliver of where it was that record-setting April of 2019.

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MSR: U.S. Petroleum Markets, Economy Continue to Recover

monthly-stats-report  economic growth  demand 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted April 15, 2021

API’s primary data for March 2021 suggest that petroleum markets demonstrated a measured recovery following the winter emergency disruptions that affected oil supply, trade and inventories beginning in mid-February.

Notably, total U.S. petroleum demand of 19.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) decreased seasonally but showed resounding strength in rural gasoline demand that increased by 632,000 barrels per day over February. 

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API Reports: Economy, Petroleum Demand Have Gained Momentum

monthly-stats-report  oil demand  economic recovery 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted March 18, 2021

API’s latest industry outlook affirms the extent of recoveries in the U.S. and global economies, as well as rising demand for oil and natural gas.

For the past two quarters, API’s data and analysis have indicated these comebacks were underway, and this is visible in the March Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), based on February data, and API’s quarterly Industry Outlook.

The recoveries come on the tailwind provided by nearly $20 trillion of economic stimulus around the world. We could be poised for the largest two-year oil demand increase (9.2 million barrels per day, mb/d) on record since 1950 and new record highs of demand (102.4 mb/d) by the fourth quarter of 2022.

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Is the World About to See an Oil Shortage?

oil supply and demand  production  global energy 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted February 24, 2021

It’s possible we could be headed for a shortfall in global oil supply as soon as next year – pretty remarkable considering where oil demand was last spring, with economies slowing under the weight of the pandemic.

Based on projected rising demand, the natural production decline from existing wells and decreases in drilling activity and industry investment – especially in the U.S. – the world’s oil needs could outpace production in 2022. An undersupply potentially could put upward pressure on costs, impacting consumers, manufacturers and, generally, any process that utilizes oil.

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