Energy Tomorrow Blog
Posted June 12, 2019
The U.S. energy revolution continues to surge ahead – but you might not know it from some recent headlines: “The Shale Boom Is About To Go Bust” (Oil Price.com); “Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast” (Wall Street Journal); “U.S. Oil Production Is Headed For A Quick Decline” (Oil Price.com)
Actually, domestic natural gas and oil production continues to expand. See API’s most recent Monthly Statistical Report. For some of the same reasons economists are so bad at predicting recessions, sometimes analysts may struggle to accurately project where U.S. energy is heading. After all, the shale revolution’s prospects have been underestimated since it launched.
Posted October 13, 2016
Making industry operations more energy efficient makes sense on two levels: It’s good for the environment and it’s good for business. It’s another way the oil and natural gas industry is making a difference in areas and communities across the country.
Posted June 8, 2015
Platts (The Barrel Blog) – When OPEC left production unchanged in November last year many understood it to be US or Canadian tight oil producers who would suffer, but thanks to technological advances — to paraphrase Mark Twain — the reports of the death of the tight boom have been greatly exaggerated.
After OPEC’s announcement of stable production, crude prices fell under $50/b, and the obituaries began to be written.
But lower prices forced companies to become hyper-vigilant on costs, and the result was the opposite of what may have been intended. US and Canadian production continued to grow, and E&P companies became leaner and more efficient — leading to a more competitive industry.
The savings from technological advances and more efficient internal processes, unlike the drop in rig dayrates that could rise again when the market turns, will be a more permanent feature of the North American oil market.
The numbers tell the story. The North American oil rig count dropped from its peak in early October at 1,609 to 646 for the week-ending May 29, yet productions is headed in the opposite direction — US oil output hit 9.586 million b/d, its highest daily rate since the EIA began weekly production reports in 1983. The EIA recently forecast another million b/d of oil production growth until it peaks in 2020 at 10.603 million b/d.
Posted May 19, 2015
Oil and Gas Investor: The technology that fueled the U.S. shale revolution could breathe new life into old oil fields outside of North America.
More than 170 mature oil plays worldwide have the potential from horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to produce as much as 141 billion barrels (Bbbl) of oil, according to an IHS report on May 13.
Of the estimated 141 Bbbl of potentially recoverable oil using unconventional techniques, 135 Bbbl exist in plays that would likely require hydraulic fracture stimulation to produce. Roughly 6 Bbbl sit in plays that may not require hydraulic fracturing.
Posted May 11, 2015
Breaking Energy Opinion (Thorning): The Department of Energy recently approved an application from Alaska LNG to export natural gas. But there’s a catch: these exports can only go to nations where the United States has a free-trade agreement in place.
Never mind the fact that the top markets for LNG are India, China, and Japan, where we don’t have free-trade agreements set up.So essentially, the company is stuck alongside the 20-plus U.S. natural gas companies that are awaiting approval to sell abroad. Some have been waiting for nearly three years.
Despite the rapid expansion of the American energy sector, the American regulatory apparatus hasn’t kept pace with the industry’s growth. New exploration techniques like fracking have opened up giant swaths of underground energy reserves in places like North Dakota and Pennsylvania. And the operations established to dig up the embedded oil and natural gas have created hundreds of thousands of new jobs and driven billions in new economic activity.
But now, unnecessary regulations are stifling firms with outdated rules. Most notably, the federal approval process energy producers have to navigate in order to sell in foreign markets is extremely restrictive. It’s needlessly difficult for firms to ship surplus oil and gas to eager customers abroad.
Posted May 5, 2015
Energy Outlook Blog (Geoff Styles): The US Energy Information Administration's latest Annual Energy Outlook features the key finding that the US is on track to reduce its net energy imports to essentially zero by 2030, if not sooner. That might seem surprising, in light of the recent collapse of oil prices and the resulting significant slowdown in drilling. EIA has covered that base, as well, in a side-case in which oil prices remain under $80 per barrel through 2040, and net imports bottom out at around 5% of total energy demand. Either way, this is as close to true US energy independence as I ever expected to see.
It wasn't that many years ago that such an outcome seemed ludicrously unattainable. I recall patiently explaining to various audiences that we simply couldn't drill our way to energy independence. The forecast of self-sufficiency that EIA has assembled depends on a lot more than just drilling, but without the development of previously inaccessible oil and gas resources through advanced drilling technology and hydraulic fracturing, a.k.a. "fracking", it couldn't be made at all. The growing contributions of various renewables are still dwarfed by oil and natural gas, for now.
Posted April 1, 2015
Posted November 13, 2014
Bipartisanship was the unifying theme from lawmakers and panelists during an event on the intersection of energy and policy earlier today, hosted by The Hill. With the midterm elections over, it’s clear “energy ultimately prevailed,” API President and CEO Jack Gerard said, starting the discussion of what the future holds for energy in the next Congress. Gerard:
“Energy should not be a partisan issue, and while the election played out in a Republican/Democrat-type dynamic, ultimately we believe energy prevailed. Energy was a key issue in a lot of races across the country and it’s clear the American public is growing in their support of energy, especially oil and natural gas.”
Indeed, the U.S. – and the 114th Congress -- has a unique energy opportunity. When looking back even just five or six years ago, no one predicted America’s energy revolution after decades of energy scarcity. Fast-forward to today: We live in an era of rich abundance and ample oil and natural gas resources. America is now in a position to become the world’s energy superpower thanks to industry technology and innovation.
Posted October 30, 2014
Reuters: U.S. chocolate demand may get an extra boost from an unlikely source this Halloween: the U.S. shale revolution.
With an abundance of crude oil due to the country's fracking boom pushing average U.S. retail gasoline prices to their lowest in four years, consumers have spare change to buy sweets at gas station stores, Hershey President and Chief Executive Officer John Bilbrey said on Wednesday.
"You could say that we benefit because people aren't spending as much at the pump and they're going inside," Bilbrey said in a conference call with investors to discuss quarterly earnings.
Posted October 29, 2014
October marks a birthday for our friends at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Forty years ago, October 1974, EIA issued its first Monthly Energy Review (MER) – a report loaded with energy-related data and charts that’s a must-read for folks who follow energy issues. EIA Chief Adam Sieminski:
That first MER was under 50 pages and featured 3 years of data focused on fossil fuels. Today, the MER is four times as large, features data extending back 65 years, and contains information on renewable energy, emissions, energy consumption by sector, and a host of other critical subjects. In a vastly more complex energy environment, the MER continues to integrate many kinds of energy data from a wide variety of sources into one product that provides policymakers, journalists, analysts, and other concerned citizens with a comprehensive look at integrated energy data in the United States.
Certainly, much has changed over four decades. America’s energy outlook has pivoted almost 180 degrees. Check out this snippet from that October 1974 inaugural issue of MER: