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Energy Tomorrow Blog

U.S. Energy Exports and Geopolitical Transformation

us energy security  crude oil exports  lng exports  state department 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted March 21, 2019

Earlier this year we noted federal projections that U.S. liquefied natural gas export capacity would reach almost 9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2019, with exports averaging 5.1 Bcf/d. Add to that crude oil and other liquids, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the U.S. will export more energy than it imports by 2020 – for the first time since the 1950s.

The numbers take on even more significance as the context for U.S. energy leadership around the world. At the CERAWeek conference earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo talked about the unique opportunity for U.S. energy to transform geopolitical realities and in the process make Americans safer.

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The Growing Good-News Story on U.S. Natural Gas

natural gas  lng exports  us energy security  trade  economic growth  iea 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted March 5, 2019

The International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol regularly heralds the positive impacts of the American shale energy revolution (see here, here and here). All good, but U.S. shale’s global impact is just now starting to be felt, IEA’s executive director said last week.

During a global markets update at the U.S. Energy Department with Secretary Rick Perry, Birol said the United States will be responsible for about two-thirds of the growth in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) export market. Of course, this reflects the abundance of domestic natural gas, largely produced from shale formations. Big-time global impact lies ahead, Birol said.  Add to that environmental and climate progress, which we’ll get to in a bit.

Certainly, there’s every reason to believe U.S. natural gas and oil can meet or exceed global expectations. Soaring U.S. crude oil production has increased global supply, supporting the stability of global markets – while reducing weekly U.S. crude imports to their lowest level in 23 years (as of Feb. 22), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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A Break in the LNG Exports Logjam

lng exports  us energy security  trade  ferc 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted February 22, 2019

A big win this week for U.S. liquid natural gas exports: The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s approval of the Calcasieu Pass liquid natural gas (LNG) export facility in Louisiana – marking an end to a two-year logjam on LNG export approvals while boosting American global energy leadership and signaling opportunity to European allies who’ve been beholden to Russia for natural gas.

The $4.5 billion Calcasieu Pass project near Cameron Parish will be able to export 10 million metric tons per annum of LNG per year. Venture Global first applied for FERC approval for the facility in 2015. About a dozen other proposed facilities await FERC approval. Now, perhaps, the end’s in sight. 

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Petroleum Exports Retreat Suggests Global Economic Weakness

petroleum products  refineries  exports  economic growth  energy production 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted February 14, 2019

API’s Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), based on January data, is a good news/challenging news proposition.

First the good. January data tell us the U.S. has never produced more oil (11.9 million barrels per day, mb/d) and natural gas liquids (4.9 mb/d). 

At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at their highest rates (93 percent capacity utilization) and produced the most they ever have for the month of January (17.3 mb/d). Moreover, domestic gasoline demand also was the greatest on record for the month of January (8.9 mb/d). These are terrific milestones. ... But some interesting challenges also emerged.

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The Unforced Error of Trade Policies That Impede the Economy

economic growth  gdp  trade  consumers  exports 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted February 8, 2019

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s new report, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029,” says what we’ve been saying for some time now – the administration’s tariff policies are a drag on the broader economy.

CBO projects that “the recent changes in trade policy in the United States and its trading-partner countries will reduce the level of U.S. real GDP by about 0.1 percent by 2022

Now, 0.1 percent might not sound like a lot over that time period, but potentially we’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars subtracted from the economy. Dean Foreman, API chief economist, says it’s particularly concerning in the context of an economy that’s decelerating.


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The Collision Between U.S.-China Trade Policy and LNG Exports

liquid natural gas  lng exports  trade  china 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted January 14, 2019

The U.S. set new natural gas and oil production and export records in the fourth quarter of 2018, even as the administration's trade war with China continued to escalate. As 2018 trade figures have become clear, an emerging consequence was decreased U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to China, which fell by around 20 percent from 2017, as these shipments became subject to a 10 percent Chinese import tariff effective Sept. 24.

Americans should care about the health of these U.S. natural gas exports because growing markets for domestic natural gas can generate economic growth at home by helping stimulate additional natural gas development, more than is needed to supply domestic demand; attract multi-billion-dollar U.S. investments in infrastructure – including pipelines, natural gas processing, LNG liquefaction, export facilities and shipping – and the high-quality jobs and wages that accompany these; and more.


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U.S. LNG Exports: Room to Grow

lng exports  liquefied natural gas  trade  economic growth  production 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted January 3, 2019

A new chapter in U.S. natural gas exports is unfolding before our very eyes – and with it, strengthened American energy influence abroad, increased trade and support for domestic natural gas production and jobs.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that 2019 will see U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity will reach nearly 9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by year’s end, up from EIA’s 2018 estimate of 4.9 Bcf/d. The U.S. would rank third in the world behind Australia and Qatar. 

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U.S. Energy, Jobs Continue to Be Impacted By Trade War

trade  exports  oil and natural gas  jobs 

Kyle Isakower

Kyle Isakower
Posted January 2, 2019

Trade talks at the recent G-20 might have produced a ceasefire for one front in the trade war, but collateral damage continues to mount.

Before the holidays, retailers warned that the Trump administration’s tariff policies could raise prices on everything “from cribs to Christmas lights.” They were right. The Tariffs Hurt the Heartland coalition recently announced that Americans would pay more to light the tree this year. The vast majority of our holiday lights come from China, which means they were subject to a new 10 percent tariff this year – another casualty in the ongoing, multi-front trade war. …

Likewise, tariff and quota policies are hitting America’s natural gas and oil industry from multiple directions. We can’t operate without steel to drill wells that produce energy; operate refineries that turn it into gasoline and a variety of other essentials; and build pipelines, liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals and petrochemicals plants.


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America's New Energy Reality Shines in 2018

oil and natural gas production  us energy security  exports  shale energy 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted December 28, 2018

Thinking about the year in energy in 2018, a couple of recent news items focus attention on the sea change for our country launched by the U.S. natural gas and oil revolution.

These energy riches and the technical ability to harness them mean that increasingly, the U.S. is in control of its future. Energy security means a nation that isn’t constrained by energy concerns the way it was less than two decades ago.

As Americans looking ahead to 2019, let’s pause to consider the impacts of America’s new energy reality. We should be impressed and thankful for the opportunities that go with being the globe’s leading energy producer.

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Trade Policy Impacts on U.S. Energy Becoming Visible

crude oil exports  production  trade  monthly-stats-report 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted September 20, 2018

In API’s latest Industry Outlook and Monthly Statistical Report, we have shifted from recognizing risks on the horizon to having a line of sight on some of them.  The effects of trade disputes in particular have become tangible.

Most notably, at the same time as the U.S. celebrated another new record for crude oil production of 10.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), U.S. petroleum exports decreased by 1.3 mb/d over the past two months.  

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