Energy Tomorrow Blog
Growing U.S. Energy Revolution Keeps Exceeding Expectations
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Dean Foreman
Posted June 12, 2019
The U.S. energy revolution continues to surge ahead – but you might not know it from some recent headlines: “The Shale Boom Is About To Go Bust” (Oil Price.com); “Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast” (Wall Street Journal); “U.S. Oil Production Is Headed For A Quick Decline” (Oil Price.com)
Actually, domestic natural gas and oil production continues to expand. See API’s most recent Monthly Statistical Report. For some of the same reasons economists are so bad at predicting recessions, sometimes analysts may struggle to accurately project where U.S. energy is heading. After all, the shale revolution’s prospects have been underestimated since it launched.
U.S. LNG is the Energy for Global Progress
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Dustin Meyer
Posted March 27, 2019
We’ve focused on the numerous domestic benefits from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which follow the United States’ emergence as a major LNG supplier to the world market. Now let’s explore the ways U.S. LNG can help other countries meet their most pressing energy and environmental challenges.
First, let’s note that U.S. LNG exports have grown rapidly in just a few years, with cargoes reaching 34 countries across five continents.
At the same time, global LNG demand has skyrocketed. As recently as 2009, demand totaled only 182 million metric tons per annum (MMTPA). In 2018, it hit a record 319 MMTPA, a 75 percent increase.
The Growing Good-News Story on U.S. Natural Gas
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Mark Green
Posted March 5, 2019
The International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol regularly heralds the positive impacts of the American shale energy revolution (see here, here and here). All good, but U.S. shale’s global impact is just now starting to be felt, IEA’s executive director said last week.
During a global markets update at the U.S. Energy Department with Secretary Rick Perry, Birol said the United States will be responsible for about two-thirds of the growth in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) export market. Of course, this reflects the abundance of domestic natural gas, largely produced from shale formations. Big-time global impact lies ahead, Birol said. Add to that environmental and climate progress, which we’ll get to in a bit.
Certainly, there’s every reason to believe U.S. natural gas and oil can meet or exceed global expectations. Soaring U.S. crude oil production has increased global supply, supporting the stability of global markets – while reducing weekly U.S. crude imports to their lowest level in 23 years (as of Feb. 22), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Congress Should Approve U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement
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Mark Green
Posted February 26, 2019
When the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was announced last fall, we pointed out that it would be good for North American energy security and continue flourishing energy trade between the United States and its neighbors by providing market access and zero tariffs for U.S. natural gas and oil and related products.
The agreement would sustain and expand the gains made under its predecessor, NAFTA, which created a North American energy market, helped make the U.S. more energy secure and benefited U.S. consumers.
Congress should approve USMCA as soon as possible to lock in the critically important energy relationship between the U.S., Mexico and Canada – as well as the general flows of goods and services so vital to good economic health in this country.
U.S. Global Oil Leadership to Continue – Which is Great for Economy
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Dean Foreman
Posted February 26, 2019
In case you missed it, let’s echo a recent official U.S. Energy Department projection that the United States should “not only maintain its lead spot as top oil producer, but will greatly exceed what it produced last year in both 2019 and 2020.”
The trajectory of U.S. oil production is significant for U.S. economic growth, energy security and global leadership, and – as we recently discussed oil exports in this post – potentially raises the stakes in the market share battle between the United States and OPEC plus Russia (OPEC+).
Petroleum Exports Retreat Suggests Global Economic Weakness
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Dean Foreman
Posted February 14, 2019
API’s Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), based on January data, is a good news/challenging news proposition.
First the good. January data tell us the U.S. has never produced more oil (11.9 million barrels per day, mb/d) and natural gas liquids (4.9 mb/d).
At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at their highest rates (93 percent capacity utilization) and produced the most they ever have for the month of January (17.3 mb/d). Moreover, domestic gasoline demand also was the greatest on record for the month of January (8.9 mb/d). These are terrific milestones. ... But some interesting challenges also emerged.
The Unforced Error of Trade Policies That Impede the Economy
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Mark Green
Posted February 8, 2019
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s new report, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029,” says what we’ve been saying for some time now – the administration’s tariff policies are a drag on the broader economy.
CBO projects that “the recent changes in trade policy in the United States and its trading-partner countries will reduce the level of U.S. real GDP by about 0.1 percent by 2022
Now, 0.1 percent might not sound like a lot over that time period, but potentially we’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars subtracted from the economy. Dean Foreman, API chief economist, says it’s particularly concerning in the context of an economy that’s decelerating.
State of American Energy 2019
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Mark Green
Posted January 8, 2019
In many ways, the truest measure of U.S. energy is America itself – the country’s economic health and its security in the world, the individual prosperity of its citizens and the nation's ability to meet significant challenges. Energy, led by natural gas and oil, is driving progress in all of these areas. No less important is the role abundant, secure energy plays in expanding concepts of what's possible, what Americans can achieve.
These themes were highlighted at the State of American Energy event in Washington, D.C., where API’s annual report, “America’s Generation Energy,” was released. API President and CEO Mike Sommers said this Generation Energy – the generation of Americans with unprecedented opportunity to dream and achieve thanks to plentiful natural gas and oil – is ready to achieve big things.
U.S. LNG Exports: Room to Grow
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Mark Green
Posted January 3, 2019
A new chapter in U.S. natural gas exports is unfolding before our very eyes – and with it, strengthened American energy influence abroad, increased trade and support for domestic natural gas production and jobs.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that 2019 will see U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity will reach nearly 9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by year’s end, up from EIA’s 2018 estimate of 4.9 Bcf/d. The U.S. would rank third in the world behind Australia and Qatar.U.S. Grows as an Energy Superpower
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Dean Foreman
Posted December 20, 2018
Remarkable production figures in API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report illustrate the breadth and depth of the U.S. energy revolution and translate into economic growth and increased U.S. security in the world. In the past, U.S. production data sometimes included an asterisk – leading in some scenarios but not others. The figures above pretty much eliminate the “ifs,” “ands” or “buts” associated with any discussion of U.S. energy muscularity.
Consider this: U.S. production of NGLs – liquid fuels produced with natural gas such as ethane, propane, butane and others – makes the U.S. natural gas industry the world’s No. 4 oil producer (behind the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia).