Energy Tomorrow Blog
Posted October 17, 2019
A major milestone for U.S. energy trade appears imminent. For the first time in more than 60 years, the U.S. may be a net exporter of total energy – based on API’s estimates in our latest Monthly Statistical Report (MSR).
The MSR shows that the U.S. petroleum trade balance decreased to net imports of just 818,000 barrels per day in September – and that at a time when domestic demand was at its highest level ever. With the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimating that U.S. net exports of natural gas last month were 5.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) – more than 900,000 barrels per day in oil-equivalent energy – that would exceed U.S net imports of crude oil and refined products.
Posted October 4, 2019
The latest figures on U.S. crude oil exports show growing U.S. energy leadership, while the continued decline in net oil imports signals strengthened American energy security – with both stemming from the revolution in U.S. production. Charts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) help illustrate.
First, EIA reports that U.S. crude oil exports rose to average 2.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of this year – an increase of 966,000 b/d over the same period in 2018. U.S. crude oil exports set a record in June of 3.2 million b/d, and EIA's graph vividly reflects the sea change in the United States’ oil exporting posture.
Posted May 17, 2019
It seems like each winter we see consumers in New England suffering not just from freezing temperatures but also the highest energy prices in the country (see here and here) – largely because there’s not enough natural gas infrastructure to serve the region during periods of peak winter demand. This past winter, the news was a little bit better.Natural gas prices generally follow seasonal patterns and tend to rise in the winter. For example, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has suggested
that liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports helped to moderate energy price spikes in the region this year. ...
Still, domestic infrastructure constraints in New York and New England mean that residents remain faced with relatively high and uncertain energy prices plus the possibility of winter shortages – not to mention the unnecessary stress those conditions put on the region’s power grid.
Posted April 4, 2019
A pair of graphics prepared by API Chief Economist Dean Foreman help underscore the impacts of bad, consumer-impacting policies blocking needed natural gas infrastructure in New York and New England.
First, because New York and New England don’t have enough natural gas pipeline capacity to meet the needs of consumers, especially during peak-demand months in the winter, the two have had to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) to help fill in the gaps.
As Dean’s graphic shows, 90 percent of the $1.2 billion in LNG the U.S. has imported since 2016 went to NY/NE. The bad news for consumers is that they paid about $670 million more for the imported LNG than they would have paid for domestic natural gas – that should have been available from the nearby Marcellus shale play with sufficient infrastructure to deliver it.
Posted March 13, 2019
The administration is considering doubling down on its trade war despite repeated warnings and thorough evidence that tariffs and quotas are negatively impacting American consumers, even while failing to lower the U.S. trade deficit. We can now add one more report to that long list of evidence with the release of a new analysis from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) with all-too-familiar findings: the economic impact of trade restrictions is falling solely on consumers – not the countries that they target – despite the Administration’s claims. This serves as an unfortunate reminder that tariffs are a tax on imported goods that is paid for not only by American businesses but potentially consumers.
Posted February 12, 2019
Recent tweet from the American Enterprise Institute’s Mark Perry includes a chart that vividly illustrates one of the biggest benefits of the U.S. energy revolution. First, it plots soaring U.S. net petroleum imports, which peaked at 60.3 percent in 2005, and then logs the plunge to just 12.1 percent last year. The thing that caught my eye in Perry’s tweet is that the time frame for his graph, 1957-2018, is pretty much the span of this blogger’s life.
Most importantly, in one generation, the United States has gone from steadily growing energy dependency to a nation that’s largely in control of its energy destiny. It’s a turnabout many of Americans never thought possible. Remarkable. Breathtaking. Or, as Perry tweets, amazing.
Posted January 18, 2019
The new Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) details the vigor of American crude oil production and strengthening U.S. energy security. This is good news for the economy, consumers and America's place in the world.
Consider that EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018, an increase of 1.6 million b/d over 2017. EIA says production reached its highest level and had its largest volume growth on record.
EIA estimates crude oil and petroleum products net imports fell to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018, from 3.8 million b/d in 2017 – and 12.5 million b/d in 2005. And EIA forecasts that net imports will keep declining this year, to an average of 1.1 million b/d and to less than 0.1 million b/d in 2020. EIA forecasts that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products by about 0.9 million b/d.
Posted January 6, 2017
Sometime in the mid-2020s, U.S. energy officials project, two key lines measuring energy imports and exports will cross, and the United States will have achieved something quite special – the advent of an era in which America is a net energy exporter. That’s one of the big projections contained in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s newly released Annual Energy Outlook for 2017 (AEO2017).
Posted July 1, 2016
Happy Canada Day! Here in the U.S., if you’re not already celebrating with our friends to the North, think about starting. Canada is much more than a good neighbor.
OK, seriously, we celebrate with the Canadians because Canada is vital in terms of trade and energy security.
Posted February 9, 2016
Progress on domestic oil production and oil imports is not something the United States should surrender – or worse, roll back. We should not pursue policies that take the United States back to the energy reality of a decade ago: the prospect of increasing dependency and less opportunity – for American workers, consumers, our economy and our strategic security.
Yet, that’s what the Obama administration is leading – a retreat from the progress that’s been made because of abundant shale energy reserves and the innovation and technology reflected in safe hydraulic fracturing and modern horizontal drilling.