Energy Tomorrow Blog
John D. Siciliano
Posted April 5, 2021
API took an important step to extending its safety and environmental protection programs to the continent of Africa, signing a new collaborative agreement with the business group African Energy Chamber (AEC), to expand use of API world-class standards, certifications and training programs.
The memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the AEC – API’s first agreement with an African partner – is the latest in a series of similar agreements in the past year between API and organizations in nearly every region of the world. Such agreements arise from the global recognition API standards have earned for enhancing safety, efficiency and environmental protection across the natural gas and oil industry.
Posted March 18, 2021
API’s latest industry outlook affirms the extent of recoveries in the U.S. and global economies, as well as rising demand for oil and natural gas.
For the past two quarters, API’s data and analysis have indicated these comebacks were underway, and this is visible in the March Monthly Statistical Report (MSR™), based on February data, and API’s quarterly Industry Outlook.
The recoveries come on the tailwind provided by nearly $20 trillion of economic stimulus around the world. We could be poised for the largest two-year oil demand increase (9.2 million barrels per day, mb/d) on record since 1950 and new record highs of demand (102.4 mb/d) by the fourth quarter of 2022.
Posted March 17, 2021
One of the great benefits of increased U.S. oil production over the past decade and a half is strengthened U.S. energy security – decreased reliance on foreign oil suppliers and insulation for American consumers against sudden price increases due to geopolitical events, such as the recent attacks on Persian Gulf oil facilities.
Years ago, an episode like that could’ve caused serious alarm in the United States and globally. Yet, the apparent lack of significant or enduring oil price movement following last weekend’s attack shows the tremendous influence U.S. oil production has had on global markets. The same was true after missile attacks on Saudi facilities in 2019 (see here), which substantially reduced Saudi Arabia’s oil exports for a short period. Both events and their aftermath indicate that U.S. domestic production has largely mitigated the price volatility historically associated with serious geopolitical events.
Still, some cautions are in order. First, U.S. energy security can’t be assumed. It takes long-range planning and investments, safe access to domestic resources, the ability to expand pipeline and export facility infrastructure, and a policy-level approach that anticipates unforeseen events that could affect global energy supply and have dire impacts on U.S. security, economic growth, and consumers.
Posted February 24, 2021
It’s possible we could be headed for a shortfall in global oil supply as soon as next year – pretty remarkable considering where oil demand was last spring, with economies slowing under the weight of the pandemic.
Based on projected rising demand, the natural production decline from existing wells and decreases in drilling activity and industry investment – especially in the U.S. – the world’s oil needs could outpace production in 2022. An undersupply potentially could put upward pressure on costs, impacting consumers, manufacturers and, generally, any process that utilizes oil.
Posted February 18, 2021
As oil prices rallied this past week, headlines suggested that oil demand recovery is expected to pick up speed (subscription required) later this year. However, API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report, based on January data, suggests that U.S. oil markets already kicked off 2021 with a remarkable month:
Total U.S. petroleum demand returned to within 1.2% of its level from January 2020 despite the pandemic; refining and petrochemical demand for other oils – naphtha, gasoil, propane/propylene reached a record-high level (6.5 million barrels per day, mb/d) and 33.1% share of total U.S. petroleum demand; and the lowest U.S. crude oil imports for January since 1992 propelled U.S. petroleum net exports.
Consider this: For all of the economic pain and dislocation caused by the 2020 COVID-19 recession, U.S. petroleum demand returned to within a hair of its pre-COVID levels and well within the five-year range.
Posted January 28, 2021
Remarks at the United States Energy Association’s 17th annual State of the Energy Industry Forum:
A month into 2021, a divided America faces more challenges than anytime in modern history. But after a year of crisis, everyone can agree on something – we are ready for recovery.
So, we at API were encouraged to hear President Biden’s Inauguration Day call for unity. Even better, he issued that call at a time when Democrats and Republicans alike can rally around U.S. energy leadership. After all, the new president assumes power when America leads the world both in energy production and environmental performance. ...
Poised to build on this energy progress, API congratulated President Biden. Moments after he took the Oath of Office, we pledged to work with his administration when we can and oppose when we must. So, only eight days into his term, it is disappointing to report that we find ourselves in a posture of strong opposition. But we have no choice.
President Biden’s energy policy actions have completely undercut his message of unity and his mandate for economic recovery. Today I’m going to illustrate why.
Posted January 13, 2021
We’re ready, and we’re able.
After a difficult year in which too many were lost, economic hardship was palpable and creeping doubt dogged the national psyche, Americans are right to look to the future. And America’s natural gas and oil industry is ready and able to help build that future.
It takes energy – affordable, reliable energy – to move people and things, to build, heat, manufacture, innovate and grow today and tomorrow. Natural gas and oil are America’s leading energy sources, by far, and our industry is ready to provide the dependable foundation for the country’s next great chapter.
Like every other business sector, ours took some lumps in 2020, but we proved our resilience, our staying power and capacity, despite significant challenges, to power recovery and drive new opportunity on a nationwide scale.
Those are a few of the key themes from today’s API’s annual State of American Energy event. Emerging from the trials of 2020, all of us can be thankful that the state of American energy – the state of the U.S. natural gas and oil industry – is good, very good.
Posted December 8, 2020
Although many uncertainties remain, oil market fundamentals have recently improved along with economic recovery from the 2020 COVID-19 recession, as we discussed here. If estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and others prove to be correct, 2021 could recoup much of the growth, spending, investment and energy demand that was forgone this year.
While 2020 has been an especially challenging year and business climate, what we’re seeing is that the U.S. natural gas and oil industry has resiliently increased its productivity to record levels, lowered its costs and expanded critical infrastructure to reposition for growth in a potential recovery.
A critical question for the United States — its economic growth, energy security and trade balance – concerns who will supply the market if it recovers as expected.
Posted December 1, 2020
The year has brought extreme and at times contradictory information about the economy and our industry, making it increasingly difficult to determine whether the economic recovery has gained firm footing and ultimately traction, in which natural gas and oil will play a key role.
Importantly, we currently see well-grounded pillars for expected U.S. and global economic growth over the next two years – personal consumption expenditures and investment that generally represent the majority of GDP. These could kickstart new economic growth and prosperity that will not only require but fundamentally be enabled by oil and natural gas.
Posted November 20, 2020
As the deadly coronavirus pandemic cripples business activity and depresses consumer spending, American energy continues to power the nation’s economy and enable the delivery of essential products and services.
Despite this year’s demand downturn, natural gas and oil are still vital to the world’s energy mix and will remain indispensable for decades to come.