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Energy Tomorrow Blog

America’s Home-Grown Energy ‘Cushion’

monthly-stats-report  production  economic growth  consumers 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted July 18, 2019

Domestic oil production continues to benefit the U.S. – increasing energy security and driving economic growth – and cushion the economy as well as American consumers against global events that in the past impacted energy supplies, costs and prices.

Strength stemming from the U.S. energy revolution is seen in API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), with U.S. crude oil exports setting a new record in June at 3.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), which represents growth of 1.1 mb/d over June 2018. Moreover, U.S. petroleum net imports fell to 1.3 mb/d in June from 2.9 mb/d in June 2018 – a major step closer to the U.S. becoming a net exporter of oil.

In other words, the U.S. has continued to supply virtually all of the world’s growing oil needs for transportation and industry, which has increased the stability of the global supply while generally lessening energy-related tensions.


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API Report: Stronger Economy, More Security Thanks to Energy

monthly-stats-report  production  economic growth  us energy security 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted June 20, 2019

API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report (MSR) underscores just how much recent oil production growth exceeded the pace of record U.S. domestic needs and crude oil exports, resulting in higher inventories.  This production and cushion for the market have kept oil and fuel prices low, and all these factors have contributed to a stronger economy with greater U.S. energy security.

Along with the separate Industry Outlook presentation, covering energy market developments for the second quarter of 2019, we see U.S. oil and natural gas output continuing to set records, helped by low breakeven prices and productivity that underpin the longevity of the domestic energy revolution –as we discussed here.

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Growing U.S. Energy Revolution Keeps Exceeding Expectations

shale drilling  production  efficiency  investment  growth 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted June 12, 2019

The U.S. energy revolution continues to surge ahead – but you might not know it from some recent headlines: “The Shale Boom Is About To Go Bust” (Oil Price.com); “Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast” (Wall Street Journal); “U.S. Oil Production Is Headed For A Quick Decline” (Oil Price.com)

Actually, domestic natural gas and oil production continues to expand. See API’s most recent Monthly Statistical Report. For some of the same reasons economists are so bad at predicting recessions, sometimes analysts may struggle to accurately project where U.S. energy is heading. After all, the shale revolution’s prospects have been underestimated since it launched.


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The Pro-Consumer U.S. Energy Revolution

consumers  energy costs  oil and natural gas production 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted April 9, 2019

America’s energy revolution is decidedly pro-consumer. Indeed, surging U.S. natural gas and oil production has significantly helped individual Americans and their families with their budgets, plan travel and more.

We’ll go mostly visual to absorb this – in a handful of charts from API’s Quarterly Industry Outlook, prepared by Chief Economist Dean Foreman. …

America’s natural gas and oil resurgence has played a major role in that when you think about the average family’s needs for driving, home heating and keeping the lights on (remembering that natural gas is the leading U.S. fuel for power generation). It follows, then, that families spending less on energy had more of their disposable income available for other needs.


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U.S. Global Oil Leadership to Continue – Which is Great for Economy

oil production  us energy security  economic growth  consumers 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted February 26, 2019

In case you missed it, let’s echo a recent official U.S. Energy Department projection that the United States should “not only maintain its lead spot as top oil producer, but will greatly exceed what it produced last year in both 2019 and 2020.”

The trajectory of U.S. oil production is significant for U.S. economic growth, energy security and global leadership, and – as we recently discussed oil exports in this post – potentially raises the stakes in the market share battle between the United States and OPEC plus Russia (OPEC+).  

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Unintended Consequences in Alberta's Limits on Crude Output

alberta canada  crude oil  refiners  trade  production 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted February 19, 2019

A profound shift has taken place in North American oil markets over the past few months that’s now affecting trade between the United States and its biggest crude oil supplier, Canada.  

It involves supplies of heavier crude oil – important for the manufacture of a multitude of everyday products consumers use, from local road surfaces to the roofing for their houses. While the U.S. is producing domestic crude at record levels, there’s still a need for heavier crudes.

With heavy oil from Venezuela declining for years, the importance of close ties with Canada and especially the oil-producing province Alberta has increased. Unfortunately, Alberta’s decision to limit oil production appears to be advancing uneconomic outcomes, where some U.S. refiners signaled they’ll shift away from Canadian heavy crude oil and seek supply elsewhere. 


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Petroleum Exports Retreat Suggests Global Economic Weakness

petroleum products  refineries  exports  economic growth  energy production 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted February 14, 2019

API’s Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), based on January data, is a good news/challenging news proposition.

First the good. January data tell us the U.S. has never produced more oil (11.9 million barrels per day, mb/d) and natural gas liquids (4.9 mb/d). 

At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at their highest rates (93 percent capacity utilization) and produced the most they ever have for the month of January (17.3 mb/d). Moreover, domestic gasoline demand also was the greatest on record for the month of January (8.9 mb/d). These are terrific milestones. ... But some interesting challenges also emerged.

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The ‘Amazing’ U.S. Shale Revolution

us energy security  oil and natural gas production  oil imports  shale energy  hydraulic fracturing 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted February 12, 2019

Recent tweet from the American Enterprise Institute’s Mark Perry includes a chart that vividly illustrates one of the biggest benefits of the U.S. energy revolution. First, it plots soaring U.S. net petroleum imports, which peaked at 60.3 percent in 2005, and then logs the plunge to just 12.1 percent last year. The thing that caught my eye in Perry’s tweet is that the time frame for his graph, 1957-2018, is pretty much the span of this blogger’s life.

Most importantly, in one generation, the United States has gone from steadily growing energy dependency to a nation that’s largely in control of its energy destiny. It’s a turnabout many of Americans never thought possible. Remarkable. Breathtaking. Or, as Perry tweets, amazing.


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A New Chapter in the U.S. Energy Revolution

oil production  us energy security  imports  global energy 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted January 18, 2019

The new Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) details the vigor of American crude oil production and strengthening U.S. energy security. This is good news for the economy, consumers and America's place in the world.

Consider that EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018, an increase of 1.6 million b/d over 2017. EIA says production reached its highest level and had its largest volume growth on record.

EIA estimates crude oil and petroleum products net imports fell to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018, from 3.8 million b/d in 2017 – and 12.5 million b/d in 2005. And EIA forecasts that net imports will keep declining this year, to an average of 1.1 million b/d and to less than 0.1 million b/d in 2020. EIA forecasts that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products by about 0.9 million b/d.


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Want to lower consumer energy costs? Invest in energy infrastructure.

infrastructure  consumers  pipelines  development  demand  production 

Jessica  Lutz

Jessica Lutz
Posted January 15, 2019

The U.S. natural gas and oil pipeline network spans 2.7 million miles. And while that may sound like a lot, a recent Wall Street Journal article reminds us that U.S. energy infrastructure is still failing to keep up with production and demand. Americans in some parts of the country remain under-served while companies in high-production areas are forced to offload excess natural gas resources – all because of a lack of adequate infrastructure, and regulatory barriers to new development.

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