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Energy Tomorrow Blog

Energy in 2014 and Beyond

energy supply and demand  access  trade  electricity  oil and natural gas development 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted December 13, 2013

There’s much to mine from ExxonMobil’s 2014 energy outlook, but here’s a quick analysis: In a world of increasing energy demand, the future looks brightest for countries that have significant energy reserves, modern industries that can find and produce from those reserves and policies that allow them to be major players in the global marketplace. For the United States that would be check, check and … check back later.

ExxonMobil’s William Colton and Kenneth Cohen highlighted the annual report that looks to global energy demand and supply out to the year 2040. Key projections and charts:

Demand – The world’s energy demand is expected to increase 35 percent over 2010 levels by 2040. Most of the demand growth will come from the developing world. ExxonMobil projects flat demand growth in developed nations despite expanding economies due to technology and energy-use efficiencies.

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U.S. Oil Growth, Energy Security and Global Impact

energy  security  supply 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted June 13, 2013

The bottom-line numbers in BP’s 2012 Statistical Review depict surging U.S. domestic oil and natural gas production, mainly because of the development of U.S. shale reserves through hydraulic fracturing:

  • 8.9 million barrels of oil per day (Mb/d) – U.S. production in 2012, the highest level since 1991.
  • 1 Mb/d – U.S. oil output growth last year over 2011, the largest increase in the world (14 percent) and the largest in U.S. history.
  • 84 percent – U.S. energy demand supplied by domestic sources, up from an all-time low of 69 percent just eight years ago.

BP’s chart on U.S. oil production, spanning the past quarter century:

BP Oil Outgrowth 

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Rising U.S. Oil Supply and the Impact on Global Markets

access  crude oil  energy information administration  oil supply  Energy 101  Economy  global markets 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted May 17, 2013

Increasing U.S. domestic production of oil matters. Energy Information Administration (EIA) chief Adam Sieminski had this analysis at an energy conference earlier this week (h/t Breaking Energy):

“There’s a fairly significant, long-standing relationship between spare production capacity in OPEC and what the pricing environment is for oil. So the 2 million barrel per day  increase in U.S. oil production that surprisingly took place over the last five years has resulted in higher OPEC spare capacity, and undoubtedly, has been a factor in why Brent oil prices are $103-$104/bbl rather than $125-$130/bbl.”

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Better Data for Better Decisions on LNG

department of energy  development  employment  lng exports  natural gas supply 

Erik Milito

Erik Milito
Posted March 15, 2013

Opponents of a free market for natural gas have been trumpetinga new study which purports to show that LNG exports would be an economic negative for the United States. This flies in the face of analysis done by the Department of EnergyThe Brookings InstituteICF International and others which showed that to boost economic activity open markets are the way to go. So we took a look at the study to figure out why their conclusions are not consistent with other industry or government projections. We found some serious biases and inconsistent assumptions added up to a fatally flawed report. Here are a few specifics.

The employment impact analysis is flawed because it assumes no incremental natural gas production.

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Crude Oil Demand, Gasoline Prices and Greater Energy Self-Sufficiency

supply  prices  gasoline  energy  demand  crude oil  access 

Mark Green

Mark Green
Posted February 22, 2013

Gasoline prices have been climbing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports:

The average U.S. retail price for regular motor gasoline has risen 45 cents per gallon since the start of the year, reaching $3.75 per gallon on February 18. Between January 1 and February 19, the price of Brent crude, the waterborne light sweet crude grade that drives the wholesale price of gasoline sold in most U.S. regions, rose about $6 per barrel, or about 15 cents per gallon.

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The New York Times is Wrong – Again, and Again, and Again

access  anwr  demand  domestic energy  energy policy  federal lands  gulf of mexico  keystone xl  liquid fuel  offshore drilling  onshore drilling  supply  taxes 

Kyle Isakower

Kyle Isakower
Posted August 27, 2012

Ridiculing a New York Times editorial blog is like shooting unusually large fish in a barrel, but this one from last Friday is so fantastical and extreme that a commitment to an honest debate on energy compels me to fire away.  And we don’t have to go far to start the fact check, as they lead with:

"The simple truth, as President Obama has recognized, is that a country that holds less than 3 percent of the world’s reserves but consumes more than 20 percent of the world’s supply cannot drill its way to energy independence."

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