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America’s Progress at Risk: An Economic Analysis of a Ban on Fracking and Federal Leasing

A new economic analysis outlines the dire economic consequences of a ban on federal leasing and hydraulic fracturing (or fracking) for American families and businesses. More than 95 percent of U.S. natural gas and oil wells today are developed using hydraulic fracturing. The technology has enabled the U.S. to become the world leader in energy production and emissions reductions.

The study – conducted by economic modeling firm OnLocation, Inc. – warns that banning federal leasing and fracking on public and private lands, which some presidential candidates have proposed, would cost up to 7.5 million American jobs in 2022 alone, lead to a cumulative GDP loss of $7.1 trillion by 2030, slash household incomes by $5,400 annually, increase household energy costs by more than $600 per year and reduce farm incomes by 43 percent due to higher energy costs. If a ban is enacted, the U.S. would flip from being a net exporter of oil and petroleum products to importing more than 40 percent of supplies by 2030.

The study was developed based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NF-NEMS), a well-known and vetted model used to build the U.S. Department of Energy’s Annual Energy Outlook. Vienna, Va. based OnLocation, Inc. used the integrated model to capture interactions of economic changes and energy supply, demand and prices based on economy-wide projections, examining the impact of a fracking ban not only in the energy sector but across all industries and households.

American families would pay more under a fracking ban, according to the new analysis. On average, residential natural gas prices would increase 58 percent and electricity prices would average 20 percent higher per family annually. American farmers and manufacturers would also suffer, with the cost of wheat farming increasing 64 percent, cost of corn farming increasing 54 percent and cost of soybean farming increasing 48 percent, due to the impact of higher energy costs.

The study projected that states with the highest job losses if a fracking ban is enacted include Texas (1,103,000), California (765,000), Florida (711,000), Pennsylvania (551,000) and Ohio (500,000), for a total of 3.6 million job losses in those five states alone in 2022.

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America's Progress at Risk: An Economic Analysis of a Ban on Fracking and Federal Leasing for Natural Gas and Oil Development

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America's Progress at Risk: State Job Losses in 2022 Under Fracking Ban (One Pager)

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