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New Mexico’s crude oil production has continued to set new records with growth concentrated on federal lands in Lea and Eddy Counties

New Mexico’s crude oil production rose to a record high for a second consecutive month in March 2025, growing by 100 kb/d from February to 2.26 mb/d. New Mexico’s crude oil production has more than doubled since 2019 with 80% of the growth occurring on federal lands in Lea and Eddy Counties. Nearly 70% of New Mexico’s crude oil production occurs on federal land vs. 27% of total U.S. crude production.

U.S. crude oil, NGL, & natural gas production rose to record levels in March

U.S. production of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and dry natural gas all set records in March 2025 and surpassed EIA’s forecast from its May Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO). U.S. crude oil and NGL production rose by a combined 632 kb/d from February levels and were up 811 kb/d from a year ago. Meanwhile, dry natural gas production rose by 2.3 bcf/d to 107.3 bcf/d, a level not reached in EIA’s forecast until late-2026. New Mexico led the crude oil production growth while Louisiana led the dry natural gas production growth.

New Mexico and Texas lead U.S. crude oil production increases since 2019

U.S. crude oil production grew by 1.29 million barrels per day (mb/d) between January 2019 and February 2025. This increase was driven by New Mexico and Texas, which together added 2.13 mb/d, more than offsetting declines in other regions. New Mexico now accounts for 16% of total U.S. crude production, up from 7% in January 2019.

California’s refining capacity continues to fall

The number of refineries operating in California has fallen from 23 in 2000 to 14 at the beginning of 2024, according to the latest data from U.S. EIA. The number of refineries is expected to drop to 11 by the end of 2026 as one refinery was converted to renewable fuels in mid-2024, and two additional large-scale refineries (>100 kb/d capacity) are planned to close in 2025-26. Of the 11 remaining refineries, only five are large-scale and produce substantial quantities of transportation fuels. Companies have cited rising regulatory compliance costs and weak refining margins as contributing factors for the closures.

Crude oil production in Mexico set to fall as drilling activity scales back

Mexico’s oil production has declined by 160 kb/d (8%) between October 2024 and April 2025, as the number of oil drilling rigs has tumbled by 60%. Mexico’s state-owned oil company, PEMEX, suspended service provider contracts to focus on repaying more than $24 billion in debt to suppliers. There are now just 20 rigs operating in the country, the fewest since 2018. Mexico was the second-largest source of U.S. crude imports in 2024, but in January, flows to the U.S. fell to their lowest level since July 1981.

The U.S. exported a record amount of LNG to Europe in early 2025

U.S. LNG exports to Europe reached record highs in both January and February 2025. In the first two months of the year, 65% of all U.S. LNG shipments went to the EU or UK, up from an average of 48% in 2024. U.S. LNG flows to Europe could remain elevated as the region rebuilds natural gas inventories ahead of winter and as new U.S. LNG export capacity ramps up. Europe’s natural gas inventories ended the winter at 33% full, significantly lower than in the past two winters, when inventories were more than 55% full.

The U.S. primarily imports heavy crude oils from Canada and Mexico

The U.S. imported 6.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil in 2024. Canada was the largest source, accounting for 62% of total imports, followed by Mexico at 7%. Over 60% of U.S. crude imports are classified as heavy crude, with a ≤27 API gravity (a measure of density). In contrast, around 80% of U.S. lower 48 crude production is light crude, with an API gravity above 35. The U.S. imports heavier crudes to help meet domestic refining needs.

2024 was a record year for U.S. oil and natural gas exports, going to over 100 different destinations

The U.S. exported record levels of crude, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas in 2024. The share of U.S. oil and natural gas production that is exported has been on the rise over the past decade as domestic production increased. Around 42% of U.S. NGL production is exported, 31% of crude, 20% of natural gas, and 17% of finished petroleum products. In 2024, the U.S. exported crude, NGLs, and finished petroleum products to 101 unique countries or territories.

India set to overtake China as leading contributor to global oil demand growth

China was the largest contributor to annual global oil demand growth in 20 of the past 25 years. Since 2000, China has accounted for 44% of global oil demand growth, with domestic consumption more than tripling. However, India’s oil demand growth outpaced China’s in both 2022 and 2024. India is expected to become the leading driver of global oil demand growth in the medium term. China’s oil demand growth is expected to slow due to a declining population, rising EV adoption, and a deceleration in economic growth.

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