Energy Tomorrow Blog
Posted May 17, 2019
It seems like each winter we see consumers in New England suffering not just from freezing temperatures but also the highest energy prices in the country (see here and here) – largely because there’s not enough natural gas infrastructure to serve the region during periods of peak winter demand. This past winter, the news was a little bit better.Natural gas prices generally follow seasonal patterns and tend to rise in the winter. For example, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has suggested
that liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports helped to moderate energy price spikes in the region this year. ...
Still, domestic infrastructure constraints in New York and New England mean that residents remain faced with relatively high and uncertain energy prices plus the possibility of winter shortages – not to mention the unnecessary stress those conditions put on the region’s power grid.
Posted April 4, 2019
A pair of graphics prepared by API Chief Economist Dean Foreman help underscore the impacts of bad, consumer-impacting policies blocking needed natural gas infrastructure in New York and New England.
First, because New York and New England don’t have enough natural gas pipeline capacity to meet the needs of consumers, especially during peak-demand months in the winter, the two have had to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) to help fill in the gaps.
As Dean’s graphic shows, 90 percent of the $1.2 billion in LNG the U.S. has imported since 2016 went to NY/NE. The bad news for consumers is that they paid about $670 million more for the imported LNG than they would have paid for domestic natural gas – that should have been available from the nearby Marcellus shale play with sufficient infrastructure to deliver it.
Posted March 13, 2019
The administration is considering doubling down on its trade war despite repeated warnings and thorough evidence that tariffs and quotas are negatively impacting American consumers, even while failing to lower the U.S. trade deficit. We can now add one more report to that long list of evidence with the release of a new analysis from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) with all-too-familiar findings: the economic impact of trade restrictions is falling solely on consumers – not the countries that they target – despite the Administration’s claims. This serves as an unfortunate reminder that tariffs are a tax on imported goods that is paid for not only by American businesses but potentially consumers.
Posted February 12, 2019
Recent tweet from the American Enterprise Institute’s Mark Perry includes a chart that vividly illustrates one of the biggest benefits of the U.S. energy revolution. First, it plots soaring U.S. net petroleum imports, which peaked at 60.3 percent in 2005, and then logs the plunge to just 12.1 percent last year. The thing that caught my eye in Perry’s tweet is that the time frame for his graph, 1957-2018, is pretty much the span of this blogger’s life.
Most importantly, in one generation, the United States has gone from steadily growing energy dependency to a nation that’s largely in control of its energy destiny. It’s a turnabout many of Americans never thought possible. Remarkable. Breathtaking. Or, as Perry tweets, amazing.
Posted January 18, 2019
The new Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) details the vigor of American crude oil production and strengthening U.S. energy security. This is good news for the economy, consumers and America's place in the world.
Consider that EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018, an increase of 1.6 million b/d over 2017. EIA says production reached its highest level and had its largest volume growth on record.
EIA estimates crude oil and petroleum products net imports fell to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018, from 3.8 million b/d in 2017 – and 12.5 million b/d in 2005. And EIA forecasts that net imports will keep declining this year, to an average of 1.1 million b/d and to less than 0.1 million b/d in 2020. EIA forecasts that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products by about 0.9 million b/d.
Posted January 6, 2017
Sometime in the mid-2020s, U.S. energy officials project, two key lines measuring energy imports and exports will cross, and the United States will have achieved something quite special – the advent of an era in which America is a net energy exporter. That’s one of the big projections contained in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s newly released Annual Energy Outlook for 2017 (AEO2017).
Posted July 1, 2016
Happy Canada Day! Here in the U.S., if you’re not already celebrating with our friends to the North, think about starting. Canada is much more than a good neighbor.
OK, seriously, we celebrate with the Canadians because Canada is vital in terms of trade and energy security.
Posted February 9, 2016
Progress on domestic oil production and oil imports is not something the United States should surrender – or worse, roll back. We should not pursue policies that take the United States back to the energy reality of a decade ago: the prospect of increasing dependency and less opportunity – for American workers, consumers, our economy and our strategic security.
Yet, that’s what the Obama administration is leading – a retreat from the progress that’s been made because of abundant shale energy reserves and the innovation and technology reflected in safe hydraulic fracturing and modern horizontal drilling.
Posted July 10, 2015
Here’s one takeaway from IHS’ new research report on Canadian oil sands: Thank goodness for Canada and its oil sands.
Along with our own domestic energy renaissance, oil sands imports from our northern neighbor and ally are growing America’s energy security. Oil sands crude is critically important now and will be into the future, IHS says – which is why we here in the United States should be ever so grateful for our energy partnership with Canada and attentive to ways that relationship can be strengthened.
Yes, that’s a reference to the long-languishing Keystone XL pipeline. If we’re serious about oil sands development – and IHS’ report strongly suggests Americans should be – then we should quit politicking to death the single biggest infrastructure project at hand that would facilitate oil sands transportation to the U.S.
Posted June 22, 2015
Wall Street Journal (Hamm) -- Amid news of a pending nuclear deal with Iran, some OPEC countries have struck agreements with refineries in Asia to avoid losing market share when Iranian oil comes back on the market. If U.S. policy will allow Iran to export oil, shouldn’t it allow America to do the same? Clearly, our allies would rather get their oil from America than Iran if given the choice. But without the ability to export, the U.S. is not even in the game.
Congress must lift the ban on U.S. crude oil exports. The ban is a terrible relic of the Nixon era that harms the American economy. As Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska) has pointed out, restrictions on oil trade effectively amount to domestic sanctions. Combined with a mismatch in refining capacity, the ban on oil exports is creating a significant discount for U.S. light oil at no benefit to anyone except refiners and their foreign ownership. It has cost U.S. states, producers and royalty owners $125 billion in lost revenue in four years, according to industry estimates.
Foreign producers are using their heavy oil—and the U.S. ban on exports—as a weapon against America. Over the past three decades countries such as Venezuela, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Canada have overtaken U.S. refining capacity to run their heavy crude in American refineries and capture a large portion of the U.S. market. Without firing a shot, they have disadvantaged American oil and interests.