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Energy Tomorrow Blog

America’s Home-Grown Energy ‘Cushion’

monthly-stats-report  production  economic growth  consumers 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted July 18, 2019

Domestic oil production continues to benefit the U.S. – increasing energy security and driving economic growth – and cushion the economy as well as American consumers against global events that in the past impacted energy supplies, costs and prices.

Strength stemming from the U.S. energy revolution is seen in API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), with U.S. crude oil exports setting a new record in June at 3.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), which represents growth of 1.1 mb/d over June 2018. Moreover, U.S. petroleum net imports fell to 1.3 mb/d in June from 2.9 mb/d in June 2018 – a major step closer to the U.S. becoming a net exporter of oil.

In other words, the U.S. has continued to supply virtually all of the world’s growing oil needs for transportation and industry, which has increased the stability of the global supply while generally lessening energy-related tensions.


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API Report: Stronger Economy, More Security Thanks to Energy

monthly-stats-report  production  economic growth  us energy security 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted June 20, 2019

API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report (MSR) underscores just how much recent oil production growth exceeded the pace of record U.S. domestic needs and crude oil exports, resulting in higher inventories.  This production and cushion for the market have kept oil and fuel prices low, and all these factors have contributed to a stronger economy with greater U.S. energy security.

Along with the separate Industry Outlook presentation, covering energy market developments for the second quarter of 2019, we see U.S. oil and natural gas output continuing to set records, helped by low breakeven prices and productivity that underpin the longevity of the domestic energy revolution –as we discussed here.

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Growing U.S. Energy Revolution Keeps Exceeding Expectations

shale drilling  production  efficiency  investment  growth 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted June 12, 2019

The U.S. energy revolution continues to surge ahead – but you might not know it from some recent headlines: “The Shale Boom Is About To Go Bust” (Oil Price.com); “Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast” (Wall Street Journal); “U.S. Oil Production Is Headed For A Quick Decline” (Oil Price.com)

Actually, domestic natural gas and oil production continues to expand. See API’s most recent Monthly Statistical Report. For some of the same reasons economists are so bad at predicting recessions, sometimes analysts may struggle to accurately project where U.S. energy is heading. After all, the shale revolution’s prospects have been underestimated since it launched.


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Summer Driving and Gasoline Prices

consumers  gasoline prices  fuels  gasoline taxes 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted May 1, 2019

With summer driving season almost here, nationwide average gasoline prices were $2.88 per gallon as of April 30, according to the American Automobile Association, identical to what they were one year ago when adjusted for price inflation. This good news for consumers is due, at least in part, to record-breaking domestic oil production, which has put downward pressure on global prices for crude oil, the main factor in determining prices as the fuel pump.

While the current price may be the same when you pull up to pump, some notable things have changed behind the scenes.


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Strong Economic Indications: API’s New D-E-I

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted April 18, 2019

Although we often say energy and economic growth go hand-in-hand, it’s refreshing to highlight tangible examples.  API’s new economic indicator, which was first released December 2018, is one to watch.

For the past four months, API’s Distillate Economic Indicator (DEI) has correctly anticipated changes in total U.S. industrial production, which is important to the U.S. economy and ultimately things like jobs, interest rates and the exchange value of the U.S. dollar.

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Talking Turkey, Barbeques and Abundant U.S. Propane

consumers  natural gas  petroleum products  liquid fuels 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted April 10, 2019

Connecting the renaissance in U.S. energy exports and chemical production with barbeques and turkey might not seem automatic, but hear me out. Thanks to the U.S. energy revolution, propane that’s widely used as a fuel for vital heating and cooking has never been more abundant and affordable.

Certainly, the need for affordable energy – available on-demand when and where you need it – is universal and something people I met recently during travels from Washington, D.C. to Minnesota and the Gulf Coast are talking about.   


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Series: Plentiful LNG Enhances U.S. Global Leadership

liquefied natural gas  lng exports  trade  us energy security  prices 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted March 25, 2019

For U.S. natural gas, the fourth quarter of 2018 ended with consumers benefiting from the lowest prices in nearly a year – despite the weakest inventories and coldest winter since 2014.

Indeed, recently we’ve seen natural gas prices as low as $2.56 per million Btu (Feb. 5, Bloomberg) corresponding with record high demand of 96.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of marketed production for February 2019 and low inventories – 415 billion cubic feet below the five-year average range as of Feb. 1.

It’s remarkable, because this combination of factors ordinarily would raise natural gas prices. The fact that prices fell illustrates the vigor of domestic production, which has soared during the U.S. energy revolution.

Domestic abundance and affordability have been at the heart a truly amazing U.S. natural gas story – one that has seen U.S. producers meet domestic needs and also increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to friends and allies around the world.


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U.S. Global Oil Leadership to Continue – Which is Great for Economy

oil production  us energy security  economic growth  consumers 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted February 26, 2019

In case you missed it, let’s echo a recent official U.S. Energy Department projection that the United States should “not only maintain its lead spot as top oil producer, but will greatly exceed what it produced last year in both 2019 and 2020.”

The trajectory of U.S. oil production is significant for U.S. economic growth, energy security and global leadership, and – as we recently discussed oil exports in this post – potentially raises the stakes in the market share battle between the United States and OPEC plus Russia (OPEC+).  

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Unintended Consequences in Alberta's Limits on Crude Output

alberta canada  crude oil  refiners  trade  production 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted February 19, 2019

A profound shift has taken place in North American oil markets over the past few months that’s now affecting trade between the United States and its biggest crude oil supplier, Canada.  

It involves supplies of heavier crude oil – important for the manufacture of a multitude of everyday products consumers use, from local road surfaces to the roofing for their houses. While the U.S. is producing domestic crude at record levels, there’s still a need for heavier crudes.

With heavy oil from Venezuela declining for years, the importance of close ties with Canada and especially the oil-producing province Alberta has increased. Unfortunately, Alberta’s decision to limit oil production appears to be advancing uneconomic outcomes, where some U.S. refiners signaled they’ll shift away from Canadian heavy crude oil and seek supply elsewhere. 


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Petroleum Exports Retreat Suggests Global Economic Weakness

petroleum products  refineries  exports  economic growth  energy production 

Dean Foreman

Dean Foreman
Posted February 14, 2019

API’s Monthly Statistical Report (MSR), based on January data, is a good news/challenging news proposition.

First the good. January data tell us the U.S. has never produced more oil (11.9 million barrels per day, mb/d) and natural gas liquids (4.9 mb/d). 

At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at their highest rates (93 percent capacity utilization) and produced the most they ever have for the month of January (17.3 mb/d). Moreover, domestic gasoline demand also was the greatest on record for the month of January (8.9 mb/d). These are terrific milestones. ... But some interesting challenges also emerged.

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